In the ups and downs of the cryptocurrency market, the discussion about when the bull market will arrive has never ceased. Looking back at the market trends over the past year, a seemingly prosperous 'bull market' actually hides mysteries — this round of market fluctuations is more like a meticulously orchestrated Bitcoin solo performance, staged under human manipulation, far from a true comprehensive bull market.

False Prosperity: Bitcoin's 'Lonely Carnival' The bizarre state of the current crypto circle is akin to a manipulated thermometer. In a normal market environment, the arrival of a bull market should be like warm water flooding the pool, warming up the entire ecosystem. However, the current market presents an extreme divide: Bitcoin, under various factors, is climbing in price, as if immersed in the heat wave of a bull market; in stark contrast, other crypto assets seem to have fallen into a cold cellar, desolate and quiet. Data speaks the clearest.

Compared to the crazy bull market during the Federal Reserve's massive monetary easing in 2021, when market liquidity was abundant and almost all assets experienced soaring increases, niche areas such as altcoins and sports cards could achieve astonishing gains, with project valuations often reaching tens of billions. Now, it has become the norm for project tokens from the last bull market to have fallen by over 95%, and new projects face 'ankle cuts' in valuation. Even projects that can list on leading trading platforms like Binance have seen their valuations shrink to a tenth of what they once were. Once, a billion-dollar market cap was merely a starting threshold for projects, but today, a MEME coin with a few hundred million in market cap can be hailed as a 'leader'; this contrast is a typical reflection of the market's liquidity exhaustion.

Human Manipulation: The Behind-the-Scenes Driver of the Bull Market Illusion The firmness of Bitcoin's price is largely attributed to the market expectations brought by Trump's 'pro-crypto' persona. Investors have been betting, hoping that Trump, once in office, can push the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy, injecting vitality into the crypto market. However, the reality is that even if Trump has a friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies, it is unlikely he can easily direct the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The current market's rise is more like a performance orchestrated by speculators using investors' expectations to elevate prices. When Bitcoin's price is forcibly pushed above $95,000, many investors fall into the illusion of a bull market, overlooking the overall fatigue of the market. From a financial logic perspective, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a profound impact on the crypto market. Previous bull markets were often accompanied by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies, flooding the market with capital, pushing up asset prices. Now, under inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve has maintained a relatively tight monetary policy, limiting market liquidity. In this context, relying solely on Bitcoin's rise is insufficient to support a bull market for the entire crypto circle.

When will the turning point come: waiting for the true 'easing moment' The truth of the market is gradually becoming clear: the current 'bull market' is merely a false prosperity. A true bull market requires the Federal Reserve to open the monetary 'tap' and release sufficient liquidity. Only when a large amount of capital floods into the market and investors' risk appetite increases can the crypto market welcome a comprehensive recovery. At that time, Bitcoin's rise will no longer be 'fighting alone', and altcoins and other crypto assets will also rise along with it, restoring the prosperous scene of yesteryears. While waiting for a true bull market, investors must remain clear-headed and not be blinded by the false prosperity of Bitcoin. When the turning point of the market arrives depends on the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and before that, perhaps a long period of dormancy is still needed.

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