This week's key conclusion is preliminary.
An interest rate decision will take place this Thursday (May 8), with expectations that there will be no rate cuts in May and June. The short-term market focus remains on tariff issues.
Currently, the market expects the $BTC price to reach the upward resistance of $97,000~100,000, requiring more positive news or data to maintain upward momentum, while the downward support is at $80,000~$84,000.
The Governor of Arizona vetoed a BTC reserve bill passed by the legislature, which has a certain impact on sentiment towards $BTC. More importantly, it shows that the Democratic Party behind it still holds a conservative/negative attitude towards cryptocurrency, with potential policy shift risks in the elections of 2026 and 2028.
On May 8, the Federal Reserve will hold an FOMC meeting. Chairman Powell stated in previous public talks that current inflation and economic data are mainly influenced by short-term tariff policies and do not represent medium- to long-term trends. The Fed needs to wait longer to confirm economic development trends and will not rush to pivot or cut rates. The Fedwatch prediction tool also shows that there will be no rate cuts in May and June.
Berkshire held its annual meeting last Friday, and there were two important messages:
— Buffett will retire this year, marking the end of an investment legend.
— Berkshire sold part of its assets again in Q1 2025, with cash levels reaching historical highs. The expectation is that the future market will be one of both risks and opportunities.
The Governor of Arizona vetoed a BTC reserve bill passed by the legislature, mainly citing that '$BTC and similar 'Virtual Currencies' have not yet been validated by the market and lack stability.' From a deeper perspective, this means that even after the Democratic Party's significant defeat in the 2024 presidential election, it still holds a conservative/negative attitude towards cryptocurrency policy. Attention should be paid to potential policy shift risks in the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential election.
Data from Sosovalue shows that the Fear and Greed Index has risen to 60, as market sentiment gradually warms due to the rise in BTC prices. The market capitalization of stablecoins continues to grow, $BTC ETFs still maintain net inflows, breaking the trend of decreasing inflows from last week. More funds continue to choose to buy $BTC amidst current tariffs and international trade conflicts.
$BTC CME futures prices have no short-term gaps, and from the perspective of volume distribution, the current price touches the key resistance at $97,000 (POC since the rise in November), which requires more positive news or data to push the price higher. Strong support below is located at $80,000~$84,000, mainly composed of VAH since 2024, VAL since November, and POC since the drop in February.
B Green Leaf leveraged long positions have been gradually reducing as $BTC prices rose from 70K to 90K. While this does not imply an immediate change in price trend, it indicates that large players are starting to take profits. Perhaps one can act as a follower of the whales and take partial profits as prices approach the peak.
Clearing map data shows that the accumulated short liquidity at $96,000~$97,000 has been fully cleared, and there are currently no more concentrated points above. For long positions, new long liquidity began to accumulate around $75,000, indicating that bullish players have opened contracts. Conversely, this means that the vehicle has become heavier; if the price cannot maintain an upward trend, it is likely that the price trend will change.
The implied volatility of options has slightly increased from last week's low, and the ∆25 Skew data is also slightly above the zero axis compared to last week, indicating that market sentiment is gradually warming up.
