Conclusion first
First, focus on whether the $BTC bill passes at midnight on Tuesday, then pay attention to the GDP data released at 8:30 PM on Tuesday.
Resistance for an upward move is at $97,000 to $100,000, and support for a downward move is at $80,000 to $84,000.
Options volatility has started to increase, indicating that a trend of rises and falls is about to occur.
This Wednesday (4/30), the US will announce GDP data. If this data comes out as expected at 0.4%, the market will go:
Scenario A: Expectations of an economic recession, low economic growth + high inflation equals stagflation, and the market is bearish.
Scenario B: Low economic expectations, stock market is about to crash, pricing in that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and inject liquidity, the market is bullish.
However, Bell feels that it will follow Scenario C. See what Chuan Investment said on that day 😀. Don't forget that they are also planning to launch another cryptocurrency at the end of April or early May.
This Tuesday (4/29) at midnight, Arizona will vote on whether to pass the BTC Reserve Bill. If approved, it will be the next major milestone following the approval of the spot ETF. Please help me estimate the amount, roughly around $8 to $9 billion. Although this funding volume is not extremely large, it will set a precedent for other states to gradually pass related legislation.
The price of BTC CME futures has no gaps anymore, and from the perspective of volume distribution, the key resistance level is $97,000 (POC since the rise in November), with strong support below at $80,000 to $84,000. This range is mainly composed of VAH since 2024 + VAL since November + POC since the decline in February.
The liquidation map data shows that airdrop liquidity is accumulating around $100,000, and bullish liquidity is accumulating at $82,000. Currently, there are no nearby liquidity liquidation points in the short term, and the market should focus on the GDP data on Tuesday.
Sosovalue's data shows that the Fear and Greed Index has returned to 50, BTC ETF still maintains net inflows, and the market cap of stablecoins continues to grow. However, it is worth noting that the net inflow of BTC ETF has shown a 'decreasing' trend since April 17.
The options volatility has started to rise from last week's low, while the ∆25 Skew data remains fluctuating around zero. The market is betting on increased volatility but has not chosen a direction. Bell suggests that if you want to speculate on GDP data, besides using perpetual contracts, you can also try buying straddles or strangles, betting on the magnitude of volatility rather than choosing a direction; as long as it moves up or down sufficiently, you can profit. More options content can be followed through @BTC__options teacher's teachings.
