Is it a rebound or a reversal?

It is still a rebound. Rising from 73,000 to 97,000 has not broken the previous high of 109,000, so it cannot be considered a reversal yet. A reversal requires a story and funding to support it. Without sufficient liquidity, let alone altcoins, even small-cap stocks in the U.S. stock market must oscillate at the bottom. Nowadays, funds are concentrated in BTC and top tech stocks, with little movement in other sectors. Without sector rotation, it is difficult for the market to achieve a full reversal. Previously, when BTC rose from 10,000 to 30,000, 70,000, and 100,000, there were clear logics behind it, such as the approval of the BTC ETF and policy expectations brought by Trump's administration. However, since Trump took office, there have been no new stories in this market, and it can only oscillate at high levels.

A real reversal must wait for a new story to emerge, such as new favorable policies or market hotspots, followed by funds following in and the coin price breaking new highs, which can confirm the reversal. Therefore, first, we need to see if we can return to last year's pre-tariff policy low of 100,000 USD. If we can, it indicates that funds and confidence are still decent, and we can be optimistic. But if even this proves difficult, it shows that everyone lacks confidence, and we should take a step back.

In short, the narrative for the rest of this year is interest rate cuts. #美联储何时降息？