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#FOMCMeeting US Fed Rate Decision: What to Expect on June 18. Officials could signal fewer moves to lower interest rates in 2025. Key Takeaways: The Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady in June. Economic data looks solid for now, but the outlook is more uncertain for the rest of the year, thanks to tariffs and other policy changes. The “dot plot” of Fed projections for the path of monetary policy and the economy could show fewer interest rate cuts in 2025. Bond futures traders see 60% odds that the next rate cut comes in September. When Federal Reserve officials meet for their June policy-setting meeting, it’s widely expected that they’ll hold interest rates steady at the current range of 4.25%-4.50%. Analysts say that with inflation slowly cooling and the labor market holding steady, the central bank has the luxury of waiting. Beyond next week’s decision, new projections for interest rates and the economy released after the meeting will tell a more important story about what could be ahead for the central bank in 2025. But analysts say those projections won’t be a guarantee of what’s to come. “It’s hard for the Fed to have a lot of certainty about its forecast right now, because so many things could change between now and the end of the year,” says Derek Tang, cofounder of monetary policy research firm LHMeyer. Amid rapidly evolving tariff policy and other fiscal priorities from the Trump administration, the economic outlook for the months ahead remains highly uncertain. As they weigh monetary policy decisions, Fed officials are juggling today’s solid economic data with the potential for higher inflation, slower growth, and a weaker job market down the line. Market participants have already scaled back their predictions for interest rate cuts this year, and Wednesday’s projections could show Fed officials following suit. “We’re getting really close to the endgame for 2025,” says Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

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G7 leaders push Trump on trade as talks continue. Leaders are also torn on a statement calling for de-escalation between Iran and Israel. World leaders assembled at this week’s Group of Seven summit in Canada will try to push United States President Donald Trump to back away from his punishing trade war, which experts say poses a risk to global economic stability. Most countries represented at the G7 are already subject to Trump’s 10 percent baseline tariff with threats of more to come. European countries and Japan face additional levies on cars and steel and aluminium. The G7 consists of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the US. for a meeting with the host, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump said trade would be the “primary focus” of the summit, which began on Sunday and runs until Tuesday. The trade issue is of particular interest to Canada after the Trump administration announced several extra levies on Canadian goods in recent months. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has been invited to the summit and will have her own face-to-face time with Trump as her country tries to renegotiate its three-way North American free trade agreement, which also includes Canada. While there is little expectation that the summit will end with a breakthrough in the trade negotiations between the US and the rest of the world, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is part of Trump’s delegation. Dozens of countries are locked in negotiations with the Trump administration to clinch some sort of trade deal before the US imposes stinging “reciprocal” tariffs, threatened for July. Last week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the date could be pushed back later for countries thought to be negotiating in good faith. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told reporters he would team up with his counterparts from France and Italy to discuss the US trade threat with Trump directly.

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What is the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty? Iran said on Monday its parliament was preparing a bill that could push the Islamic Republic towards exiting the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Israel began military strikes on Iran on June 13, citing concerns over its nuclear programme, one day after the U.N. nuclear watchdog's Board of Governors declared Tehran in breach of its obligations under the NPT. Iran, which denies trying to develop nuclear arms, has fired missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel's strikes. PURPOSE OF THE NPT The objective of the treaty, which took effect in 1970, is to halt the spread of nuclear weapons-making capability, guarantee the right of all members to develop nuclear energy for peaceful ends and - for the original five nuclear weapons powers - to phase out their arsenals. The treaty defines nuclear-armed states as those that “manufactured and exploded a nuclear weapon or other nuclear device prior to January 1, 1967. They are the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia, which assumed rights and obligations from the former Soviet Union. Those five nations are the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council. SIGNATORIES A total of 191 countries are party to the NPT. Nuclear weapons states agree not to transfer those weapons or to help non-nuclear states obtain them. NON-SIGNATORIES: Two non-signatories, India and Pakistan, developed nuclear weapons. Another, Israel, is widely assumed to have a nuclear arsenal but has not confirmed or denied it publicly. North Korea signed the treaty in 1985 but announced its withdrawal in 2003. ESCAPE CLAUSE The treaty is divided into 11 articles, including one that enables a state to withdraw “"if it decides that extraordinary events ... have jeopardized the supreme interests of its country". A state must give three months' notice to other treaty members and the U.N. Security Council. TREATY REVIEWS States that are party to the NPT meet to review it every five years. The next review conference is due to be held in 2026.

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Trump says UK is protected from tariffs ‘because I like them’ as trade deal is signed off. UK aerospace sector will face no tariffs from the US while auto industry lowered to 10% from 25% Keir Starmer and Donald Trump have signed off a UK-US trade deal at the G7 summit in Canada, with the US president saying Britain would have protection against future tariffs “because I like them”. The two leaders presented the deal, which covers aerospace and the auto sector, at the G7 venue in Kananaskis, Alberta. Asked about steel by reporters, Trump said: “We’re going to let you have that information in a little while.” Under details released by the Department for Business and Trade, the UK aerospace sector will face no tariffs at all from the US, while the auto industry will have 10% tariffs, down from 25%. The steel industry still faces 25% tariffs for now, although this is less than the US’s global rate of 50% on steel and aluminium. The UK business department said the two leaders had pledged to “make progress towards 0% tariffs on core steel products as agreed”.

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