#FOMCMeeting US Fed Rate Decision: What to Expect on June 18.

Officials could signal fewer moves to lower interest rates in 2025.

Key Takeaways:

The Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady in June.

Economic data looks solid for now, but the outlook is more uncertain for the rest of the year, thanks to tariffs and other policy changes.

The “dot plot” of Fed projections for the path of monetary policy and the economy could show fewer interest rate cuts in 2025.

Bond futures traders see 60% odds that the next rate cut comes in September.

When Federal Reserve officials meet for their June policy-setting meeting, it’s widely expected that they’ll hold interest rates steady at the current range of 4.25%-4.50%. Analysts say that with inflation slowly cooling and the labor market holding steady, the central bank has the luxury of waiting.

Beyond next week’s decision, new projections for interest rates and the economy released after the meeting will tell a more important story about what could be ahead for the central bank in 2025. But analysts say those projections won’t be a guarantee of what’s to come.

“It’s hard for the Fed to have a lot of certainty about its forecast right now, because so many things could change between now and the end of the year,” says Derek Tang, cofounder of monetary policy research firm LHMeyer.

Amid rapidly evolving tariff policy and other fiscal priorities from the Trump administration, the economic outlook for the months ahead remains highly uncertain. As they weigh monetary policy decisions, Fed officials are juggling today’s solid economic data with the potential for higher inflation, slower growth, and a weaker job market down the line.

Market participants have already scaled back their predictions for interest rate cuts this year, and Wednesday’s projections could show Fed officials following suit. “We’re getting really close to the endgame for 2025,” says Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.