$SOL Are we at the beginning of a bull market, or is this just a brief rebound in a bear market? From my personal subjective judgment and capital allocation, I am more inclined to believe that a bull market is imminent, and currently my position is close to 60%.

The reason I am optimistic about this year's market is that signs of recovery have already emerged. Bitcoin has not only stabilized above the 120-day moving average, but overall market sentiment is also gradually warming. However, there are also viewpoints that suggest, based on Bitcoin's four-year cycle, that from a low of $16,000 to $96,000, a 7-8 times increase has already been achieved, indicating that there may be limited room for further growth.

Additionally, many altcoins have already experienced significant declines and some have even gone to zero, while those altcoins that lacked real value may still be at high levels. If the Federal Reserve significantly cuts interest rates, it is likely due to an economic recession, which could lead to a crash in the US stock market, further putting the crypto market at risk.

However, current data shows that Bitcoin has entered a deflationary state, and institutions like MicroStrategy are still leveraging up to buy more. Even if the market corrects, the downside for Bitcoin is relatively limited unless MicroStrategy starts to sell off massively. Therefore, I believe that Bitcoin will continue to rise after a correction, and once Bitcoin experiences a surge, altcoins are likely to see hotspots, with specific sectors expected to rise significantly.

So, currently maintaining about half a position, holding Bitcoin and closely following the main trends in hot sectors may be a more rational strategy.

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