Non-farm employment is strong, suppressing interest rate cut expectations. Nick Timiraos pointed out that Federal Reserve officials tend to wait and see, with Goldman Sachs and Barclays both delaying their forecasts to July. The direction of Federal Reserve policy will still depend on future data. (Background: Bitwise predicts that the 'four major U.S. brokerage firms' will open Bitcoin ETFs by the end of the year; is a true bull market for cryptocurrency coming?) (Context: Is the U.S. neglecting its allies Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea? Trump: I have no regrets at all; imposing a 145% tariff on China is what they deserve.) The U.S. April non-farm employment report was stronger than expected. Although it boosted U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency market significantly, it also cooled market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June. Nick Timiraos, a journalist known as the 'voice of the Fed' (Wall Street Journal), bluntly stated that there are no signals in the job market indicating a 'need to cut rates'; officials are likely to continue to wait until a clearer turning point emerges. Extended reading: U.S. April non-farm data exceeds expectations! Bitcoin approaches $98,000, and the S&P hits a 20-year record with nine consecutive gains. Timiraos: The chances of a June rate cut have significantly decreased. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the non-farm employment population increased by 177,000 in April, exceeding the market expectation of 138,000, indicating that corporate hiring activity remains resilient. The unemployment rate remains at 4.2%, and the labor force participation rate slightly increased to 62.6%. Although the data for March was revised down by a total of 58,000, the overall trend has not shown a significant weakening. Timiraos pointed out that to cut rates, a notable increase in the unemployment rate needs to be observed. However, the April data shows no general decline in job vacancies, which leaves the Federal Reserve lacking a basis for a shift before next week’s meeting, making it highly likely to remain cautious and even avoid releasing any signals indicating readiness to cut rates in June. Timiraos additionally noted on X that the April unemployment rate, if calculated without rounding, is actually 4.187%, slightly up from March's 4.152%, indicating that the overall situation remains stable. He also emphasized: Over the past six months, the U.S. has averaged 193,000 new jobs per month, supporting the vitality of the job market. The number of permanently unemployed in April was 1.9 million, which, while setting a new high for this cycle, accounts for only 1.1% of the private labor force and has not constituted policy pressure. The total employment index increased by 5.3% year-on-year, highly correlated with nominal GDP growth, indicating that economic activity still has expansionary strength. Even excluding government, education, and healthcare sectors, employment in March and April still added 96,000 and 97,000 jobs, respectively, refuting some views that employment data is 'beautified.' Additionally, Timiraos observed that recently some individuals who had not been seeking jobs are starting to return to the workforce, a change that aligns with the Federal Reserve's rate cuts last autumn, suggesting that expectations for easing policies are slowly translating into real economic momentum. Some Trump advisers have characterized prior job growth as being flattered by ('brittle' due to) government or acyclical health care + education hiring. This wasn't the case in March + April. Hiring less government, education, health services was +96K and +97K, respectively. pic.twitter.com/VFKZDZuYSn — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) May 2, 2025. The probability of a June rate cut has plummeted to 34%. This report also caused a sharp reversal in market attitudes that had originally bet on a June rate cut. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market probability of a June rate cut has dropped from 75% last week to 34%. Goldman Sachs and Barclays have also simultaneously delayed their first rate cut forecast to July. Goldman Sachs and Barclays: Forecasting the rate cut has been postponed to July. Following the strong non-farm data release, Goldman Sachs and Barclays simultaneously revised their forecasts, pushing back the timing of the Federal Reserve's first rate cut from June to July. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the April employment data shows that the underlying job growth remains stable at a monthly increase of 149,000, reflecting that economic activity has not significantly slowed down, and the Federal Reserve has no urgent reason to shift. The bank still expects three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2024, with timings falling in July, September, and December. Barclays believes that delaying until the end of July will allow decision-makers to observe more changes in the labor market and wait until uncertainties around tariffs and fiscal policy are clarified before making decisions. Both institutions emphasized that if subsequent data remains strong, the timing of rate cuts may be further delayed. Trump again criticizes the Fed for needing to cut rates. Despite the cooling of rate cut expectations, Trump, who continues to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut rates, quickly posted on Truth Social claiming, 'There is no inflation; the Fed should cut rates!' Gas prices have just fallen below $1.98 per gallon, a multi-year low, grocery (including eggs!) prices are down, energy prices are down, mortgage rates are down, employment is strong, and there is more good news because billions of dollars are flooding in through tariffs. As I said, we are just in a transitional phase; it has only just begun! Consumers have been waiting for several years to finally see prices drop. Now there is no inflation; the Fed should cut rates! The rate cut process needs to focus on more data. The April non-farm report is the last labor market indicator before the Federal Reserve's May meeting, showing that the U.S. economy has not significantly stalled, and there is a lack of pressure to force the central bank to lower interest rates in the short term. The market will next focus on price data such as CPI and PCE, as well as Federal Reserve officials' speeches to see if July will truly become the starting point for a policy shift. While expectations for rate cuts have not been extinguished, they have become more cautious amid the tug-of-war between inflation and employment. Related reports: The Federal Reserve's latest (Beige Book) analysis: Business concerns escalate, market and policy pressures intensify. Is there a major positive for Bitcoin coming? The U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve report will be released before May 5. The U.S. economy exploded) the first quarter GDP unexpectedly shrank by 0.3%, but core inflation heated up; is the real economic recession just a technical distortion? 'Non-farm employment too strong! The Fed's voice: The chances of a June rate cut have greatly decreased, and Goldman Sachs and Barclays have changed their tune to 'wait until July.' This article was first published in BlockTempo (BlockTempo - the most influential blockchain news media).