According to Cointelegraph, Timothy Peterson, an economist at the Bitcoin network, has increased the likelihood of Bitcoin (BTC) reaching a new all-time high within the next hundred days, maintaining his optimistic predictions for 2025. In his analysis published on platform X, Peterson linked Bitcoin price movements to the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), which measures market volatility expectations over a 30-day period. He noted that the VIX index has dropped from 55 to 25 over the past fifty trading days. A VIX index reading below 18 indicates a 'risk-on' environment, which is favorable for assets like Bitcoin. Peterson's model, which boasts a 95% tracking accuracy, predicts a target value of $135,000 for Bitcoin if the VIX index remains low. This prediction aligns with Bitcoin's sensitivity to market sentiment, as a declining VIX index reduces uncertainty and encourages investment in high-risk assets. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, provided insights into Bitcoin's volatility, likening it to the story of 'Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.' Timmer highlighted Bitcoin's dual role as a store of value (Dr. Jekyll) and a speculative asset (Mr. Hyde), distinguishing it from gold, which is still classified as a 'fixed currency.' He emphasized the interaction between Bitcoin and the global money supply, noting that when the money supply (M2) grows and the stock market experiences a rise, Bitcoin tends to perform well due to its dual characteristics. However, when the money supply (M2) grows and stocks correct, Bitcoin's performance becomes less predictable. This underscores Bitcoin's sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, making its performance less stable compared to gold.
In a related context, data from CryptoQuant revealed that the market capitalization of stablecoins has reached a record level of $220 billion, indicating a significant increase in liquidity in the cryptocurrency market. This suggests that Bitcoin is emerging from a bearish phase with the return of capital inflows, indicating the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs in the coming weeks. Despite Bitcoin's ongoing upward trend, charts of shorter time frames suggest a shift in market dynamics. The funding rate for Bitcoin futures contracts has turned negative again, indicating an increase in short positions, as traders bet against this rise.
This rise has pushed the funding rate on the four-hour chart to its lowest level in 2025, showing that the liquidity of short positions significantly exceeds the liquidity of long positions, setting the stage for potential pressure on short positions. This imbalance could drive Bitcoin towards the $100,000 level. Cointelegraph noted that over $3 billion is at risk of being liquidated in short positions, which could enhance upward momentum and surprise pessimistic traders. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading step involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.