AMAGE INSIGHT
Why Tech Beats Tariffs: Rubini’s Bold Take on America’s Future
Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini, professor at Yale and NYU, claims the U.S. economy is set for strong and sustainable growth — no matter who becomes the next president. His bold thesis? “Technology is more important than tariffs.”
According to Roubini, even if Mickey Mouse ran the White House, the American economy would still thrive — growing at a potential 4% by 2030. That’s thanks to U.S. dominance in 12 key industries and future technologies, where China is only catching up and Europe is barely on the map.
Here’s his core argument:
• AI and tech innovations are boosting potential GDP growth from 2% to 4% — a 200 bps gain.
• Even long-term tariffs at 15% would only slow growth by 50 bps.
• Therefore: Tech contributes 4x more to growth than tariffs take away.
His message? Tariffs are noise — technology is the engine.
Roubini believes the U.S. private sector is entering a new exponential innovation era, leaving behind the old “logarithmic” phase. The AI arms race among MAG-7 and hyper-scalers is igniting massive capital investment, which began in 2023 and continues fueling the economy.
Even China’s latest AI strides (like DeepSeek) are just part of an evolution, not revolution — and they wouldn’t exist without the groundwork laid by American giants like OpenAI.
Roubini’s conclusion:
“America’s tech-driven growth will continue — no matter the politics. AI and innovation are unstoppable.”
