On April 16, a large influx of capital entered the market, continuously absorbing market chips, with most funds believing the bottom has appeared and starting to buy again. Trump constantly reminds the market that the bottom has emerged; is the future of the US looking bright?

The market has been rebounding for more than half a month. After the relaxation of tariff policies, the market has begun to rebound. Now it faces key resistance near the S&P 5700 level. Today's key points are the non-farm data and unemployment rate. What impact will the unemployment rate and non-farm data have on the market?



Non-farm data, unemployment rate:

Tonight's non-farm data and unemployment rate will be released. What worries me most is that the non-farm data and unemployment rate may not be synchronized. From the small non-farm data, we can see that employment data is not very good, and the market has already digested the employment market expectations by Wednesday.

The non-farm data may fall below expectations, but the focus is on the unemployment rate, as it is the key data the Federal Reserve is concerned about. If the unemployment rate exceeds expectations and reaches 4.3%, the market will accelerate the logic of interest rate cuts, leading to a continued rise in the market.

If the unemployment rate is below the expected value of 4.2%, it indicates fewer people are unemployed, suggesting the market is still strong enough, which may lead to a short-term market decline.



Currently, the market expectation is that under the premise of an unchanged unemployment rate, the job market is not strong enough, which means the US stock market will continue to slowly recover. However, if the job market becomes strong enough while the unemployment rate remains unchanged, it may lead the Federal Reserve and the current macro market to change direction, resulting in a market decline.

Therefore, the key indicators are the determinants of the unemployment rate. If they meet expectations or fluctuate little, the market will still slowly undergo a period of emotional recovery.

How does the market react:

Even if the actual data is poor, if it exceeds the generally pessimistic market expectations, the market may experience a 'sigh of relief' rebound. For example, if a significant increase in initial jobless claims is expected, but the actual increase is smaller, the market may interpret this as 'the situation is not as bad as imagined.'

Weak economic data will have a positive effect on the market and stock market, strengthening expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The actual rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will be the real stimulus for the economic market.

Concerns about economic growth: Insufficient consumer confidence, contraction in manufacturing (Chicago PMI), and a decline in construction spending may trigger worries about an economic slowdown.

Technical aspects:

Technical rebound after excessive selling: After a period of decline, the market may experience a technical rebound. This rebound is usually driven by short covering and buying on dips, and is not closely related to the fundamentals.

Liquidity: Even if the fundamentals do not show significant improvement, abundant market liquidity may drive asset prices up. If a large amount of capital flows into the stock market, even mediocre economic data may lead to market gains.

  • Stock market: A volatile market may occur. On one hand, strong durable goods orders and consumer confidence may boost market sentiment; on the other hand, concerns about economic slowdown may suppress market gains.

  • Bond market: It may benefit from concerns about economic slowdown and expectations of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

  • US dollar: It may come under pressure, as economic slowdown may reduce the probability of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

BTC, as the number one anchor in the risk market, will experience huge fluctuations in response to any market reaction to the non-farm data today. The date for a turning point is approaching; it is uncertain whether it will lead to extreme trends. However, both the US stock market and Bitcoin have reached critical pressure points, and the technical rebound in the market is already in place. If positive news follows, the market may continue to rise; however, if the market remains unremarkable without significant positive news, most risk capital will choose to withdraw. The main target expectations may also be reached.



Bitcoin's key position is between 95700-96300. If this chip area does not break, the market will continue to be driven higher by technical factors. However, if it breaks, the current technical rebound in the market will end, and both the stock market and cryptocurrencies will undergo a period of retracement and broad fluctuations.#加密市场反弹 #非农数据