Currently, mainstream websites predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.25% on May 7th, but on Polymarket, a platform for betting with real money, most of the big money is betting on "no rate cut," with total bets exceeding $30 million. This is a significant signal that real funds do not believe there will be an easing in the short term.

Conversely, people originally expected a favorable outcome, and once that expectation is not met, the release of panic sentiment could allow the market to relax, creating an opportunity for a rebound. If a rate cut does happen, the market might rally in anticipation, and once the news is confirmed, it could start to adjust. In such a scenario, there may be a few days of gains followed by a period of consolidation or even a pullback, before gradually moving in a new direction.

Therefore, whether there is a rate cut or not, the market has its own script arranged. Finally, tonight's non-farm payroll data is a key turning point, as sentiment dictates the current price.