1. Bull-Bear watershed: The key significance of the 96125 level
96125 as the core hub of the short-term trend, its gains and losses directly affect the market direction:
- Bullish defense zone: If today's price rebounds to this position and stabilizes (i.e., does not break below 96125), it indicates that short-term bullish strength still dominates, and the market is likely to continue its upward trend. This point can be seen as the bullish 'defense line'; if stabilized, it means strong market buying support and further upward space is expected.
- Bearish initiation signal: If the price effectively breaks below 96125 (needs to be confirmed with trading volume and candlestick patterns), a retracement trend will form on the 1-2 hour level, and bears may take the opportunity to push the price down to test the support area. At this point, watch out for the risk of a short-term trend reversal, and operations should turn conservative.
2. List of key points corresponding to long and short directions
(1) Upper channel resistance level (bullish target)
1. Short-term resistance level: 97390
- Function: A resistance level that the price has tested multiple times recently; breaking it may open up mid-term upward space.
2. Mid-term resistance level: 98495
- Function: A historically dense trading area; a volume breakout is necessary to continue the upward trend.
3. Long-term resistance level: 99400
- Function: Strong psychological resistance near the round number and previous high points.
(2) Downward channel support level (bearish target)
1. First support level: 95300
- Function: The first retracement target after breaking below 96125, if it stabilizes, may form a short-term rebound.
2. Second support level: 94110
- Function: Key support for the medium-term trend, near the 20-day moving average, can be seen as a 'buffer zone' for bulls and bears to contend again.
3. Strong support level: 92845
- Function: If the previous two support levels are broken, this level is the recent retracement limit, corresponding to the previous low point nearby, where bearish strength may be exhausted.
3. Operational strategies and risk control by scenario
(1) Scenario one: Price stabilizes at 96125 (bullish)
- Operational suggestions:
- Aggressive traders: Can take light positions to go long in the 96125-96500 range, with a stop loss set below 96000 (decisively exit if it breaks this threshold).
- Conservative traders: Wait for the price to break the 97390 resistance level, confirm the trend is strengthening, and then follow up, targeting 98495 and 99400 in sequence. Each time a resistance level is broken, consider reducing positions to lock in profits.
- Risk warning: If trading volume does not increase during the upward process, beware of false breakouts, and consider taking profits at high resistance levels.
(2) Scenario two: Price breaks below 96125 (bearish)
- Operational suggestions:
- Aggressive traders: After breaking below 96125, take light positions to go short, with a stop loss set above 96500, targeting first 95300, and after breaking, down to 94110.
- Conservative traders: Wait for the price to bounce back near 96125 and face resistance before entering short, avoiding the risk of chasing shorts.
- Risk warning: If a fast lower shadow occurs during the downward process (long wick bottoming), it may be a bear trap, requiring timely stop-loss and observation.
4. Strategy summary:
1. Core logic: 96125 is the 'compass' for today's operations, switching between long and short around this point to avoid blindly chasing highs and lows within the range.
2. Position management: Regardless of long or short, a single position should not exceed 5% of total funds, and strict stop losses should be set (suggested stop loss range of 300-500 points) to avoid significant losses in extreme market conditions.
3. Market sentiment: Closely monitor macro news (such as Federal Reserve policy, cryptocurrency regulation dynamics) and the correlation effect of mainstream coins. If the trend of Bitcoin diverges from market sentiment, be cautious with technical signals.
In a nutshell: With 96125 as the core for offense and defense, if it stabilizes, look for high resistance levels, if it breaks down, look for support levels. After the trend is clear, follow up decisively and strictly control risk to remain undefeated.$BTC #比特币走势 
