What has changed after Trump's first hundred days in office?
It has been 100 days since Trump returned to the White House, and during this time the global market has been tumultuous, filled with uncertainty and chaos.
When Trump was successfully re-elected, the crypto market was filled with hope. However, despite some important pro-Bitcoin statements made after Trump took office, crypto enthusiasts still felt disappointed.
On the eve of his inauguration, Trump launched the official token $TRUMP, generating a frenzy in the market and also sparking considerable controversy. Some critics argue that this move presents a clear conflict of interest and could even pose a threat to national security.
$TRUMP has dropped 82% from its historical high of $75.35 set on January 19. However, $MELANIA has performed worse, plummeting nearly 97%.
CoinGecko
After Trump took office, speculation swirled that he would sign a series of executive orders supporting cryptocurrency on his first day, including establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve. However, these orders did not materialize. On January 20, Bitcoin briefly soared to a record $109,000 and has not returned to that level since.
Trump indeed quickly delivered on some campaign promises made at the 2024 Bitcoin conference held in Nashville. Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the darknet market 'Silk Road,' received a full and unconditional pardon. In photos circulating online, he emerged with a smile after 11 years in prison. Reports indicate that Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) is also lobbying for a pardon, but this has yet to materialize.
Meanwhile, several members of Trump's cabinet who are friendly towards Bitcoin have quickly gained Senate approval. This includes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who claimed, 'Cryptocurrency is about freedom, and the cryptocurrency economy will exist for a long time.'
Others face intense scrutiny. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick faced harsh criticism during a confirmation hearing, but downplayed issues regarding his company's relationship with the Tether stablecoin.
The White House appointed David Sacks as the first 'czar' for artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency. Prior to taking office, he sold off his holdings of BTC, ETH, and SOL. This appointment has received widespread acclaim, even from Trump critic and SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci.
Furthermore, Trump's companies are increasingly getting involved in the digital asset space, with Trump Media Technology Group accumulating a significant cryptocurrency reserve and launching a series of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
For Trump, there is a simple rule: always be prepared for the unexpected. As early as March 2, Trump suddenly announced on Truth Social that he intended to create a 'U.S. Crypto Reserve' that would include XRP, Solana, and Cardano. Following this announcement, the prices of these altcoins surged significantly, with some rising by as much as 70%. However, the initial post did not mention BTC and ETH, but subsequent statements emphasized that these two flagship digital assets would also 'be at the core of the reserves.'
The news that BTC will be mixed with other altcoins quickly sparked heated discussions, with experts calling the proposal 'absurd' and 'chaotic.' Concerns were also raised about the feasibility of the plan, fearing it might require Congressional approval to initiate, and the specifics are scant, with no details on funding allocation, reserve funding sources, and when it would take effect.
All of these issues ultimately became irrelevant. Trump made a major turnaround and quickly signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve as originally planned—while also reserving other cryptocurrencies.
While this marks one of the largest adoption milestones in Bitcoin's history, BTC was heavily sold off as investors digested the news. Why? Because the executive order states that no new BTC can be purchased as reserves unless it can be done without affecting the budget, except for Bitcoin seized from criminals. This is also bad news for XRP, SOL, and ADA, as the U.S. currently does not hold these tokens.
Bitcoin supporters have long expected the United States to become a major buyer of Bitcoin—achieving the grand goal proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis of accumulating 1 million Bitcoins in five years. However, using taxpayer money to do so would be extremely hypocritical, especially considering Musk's commitment to drastically cut federal spending.
Data from Arkham Intelligence shows that the U.S. currently holds about 198,000 Bitcoins in its wallet, worth about $18.8 billion. However, as noted by JAN3 CEO Samson Mow, the actual scale of the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve may be much smaller—because 95,000 Bitcoins will eventually be returned to Bitfinex. Nonetheless, Mow is not pessimistic about this, believing that the significance of Trump's policies remains 'substantial,' as it will encourage other major economies to follow suit.
Shortly after Trump announced the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve, on March 7, the White House held its first cryptocurrency summit, attended by industry giants including Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy and Brian Armstrong of Coinbase. However, opinions on the summit were mixed, with some analysts arguing that 'this is more of a political stage than a meaningful policy forum.'
However, investors have more complex issues to deal with, as Trump faces accusations of deliberately suppressing the stock market to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The S&P 500 index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index have both been severely impacted, and their close correlation means that Bitcoin's sell-off could be even larger.
After 'Liberation Day,' the situation worsened as the president announced sweeping and punitive tariffs on some of America's closest trading partners, leading to a significant increase in import costs. As the likelihood of an economic recession rose and tensions between Washington and Beijing escalated, Bitcoin fell to around $80,000 in early April.
Bitcoin once faced the risk of dropping below $75,000, a 30% discount from its historical high set on Inauguration Day. However, Trump confirmed a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries while raising tariffs on China back up to 145%, temporarily providing some relief to the market. As smartphones and computers were exempted from these radical trade policies, market optimism further ignited. However, the White House's constant backtracking has left investors anxious and fatigued, with many now reducing their holdings in U.S. assets and turning to gold.
Today, it is almost impossible to keep up with the relentless news from Washington. Just as all of this was happening, Trump intensified his attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell—stating on Truth Social that 'the sooner Powell is fired, the better!'
Although presidents usually do not have the authority to dismiss heads of independent federal agencies, a Supreme Court case could change this precedent, allowing Trump to start interfering with the affairs of the Federal Reserve. Critics from various political factions are concerned that this could lead to another market crash, as the S&P 500 index had once been on the brink of a bear market.
There was a slight delay in a key appointment, namely the confirmation of Paul Atkins as chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, who was selected to replace the anti-crypto Gary Gensler. This appointment was finally completed last week, and one of his primary tasks will be to decide whether to approve the ETFs tracking altcoins like XRP.
Meanwhile, despite the price of $TRUMP plummeting, the team behind it has come up with a novel way to attract attention. They will hold an 'exclusive' dinner for the top 220 holders of the token, sparking a hoarding frenzy from now until May 12. Upon this news, the value of $TRUMP soared by 64%.
However, some on crypto Twitter are uneasy about this, believing that the dinner 'is a trap aimed at selling off and profiting from those who bought in due to FOMO.' An analyst urged those who bought $TRUMP at high prices to sell as soon as possible.
In the past 100 days, Bitcoin has dropped 12%, while the S&P 500 index has fallen 8.6%. The threat of tariffs remains ever-present. A new CNN poll shows that 59% of Americans believe Trump's policies have exacerbated the U.S. economy. About 60% believe he has intensified the cost-of-living crisis, and more consumers are worried that a recession may be looming.
Meanwhile, expectations for Bitcoin to hit new highs this year are rapidly fading. On the Polymarket platform, only 67% believe that Bitcoin will break $110,000 by the end of 2025, with the probabilities of breaking $120,000, $130,000, and $150,000 dropping to 54%, 40%, and 30%, respectively. In January of this year, these targets were seen as quite conservative, indicating how quickly the situation can change.
Trump's political unpredictability makes it nearly impossible to predict what will happen next week, let alone next month or next year. This complicates forecasts for Bitcoin's future trajectory. Any bold and confident price predictions should be approached with caution.
A lot has changed in the past 100 days, but there are still 1361 days to go.
This article is republished from: PANews
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