How did everyone spend the May Day holiday? Since the GDP data was released on the 30th, the three major U.S. stock indices have expanded their declines, with Bitcoin briefly dropping by 2,000 to around 928, and Ethereum falling below the support level of 1750.
As U.S. stocks opened low and rose high, there was positive news. Bitcoin rebounded and broke through the 960 mark, currently stabilizing around 970. The 24-hour increase is 3.14%. Ethereum also continued to rise nearly 150 points from 1730 to around 1873, with a 24-hour increase of 7.49%.
On Wednesday, as U.S. economic data sharply weakened, the 'little non-farm' report plummeted, with job growth only increasing by 62,000; the U.S. economy contracted for the first time since 2022, with a 0.3% decline in Q1 GDP; the U.S. core PCE price index for March recorded a monthly rate of 0%, the lowest since April 2020, below the expected 0.1%.
Tariffs
1. Following negative growth in the U.S. economy, Trump quickly shifted the blame: the economic contraction has nothing to do with tariffs, but is simply a result of the bad numbers left by Biden. The economic impact of tariffs is expected to require observation of data over the next few months and a longer period to make a judgment.
2. French Finance Minister: Discussed the idea of mutually implementing zero tariffs with Basent, who said this idea is not unrealistic.
3. Trump: The 'Beautiful Big Plan' that is brewing may be bigger than tariffs. He also stated that Canadian Prime Minister Carney called him yesterday, hoping to reach an agreement and meet soon. He mentioned that at some point, tariffs will be imposed on pharmaceutical companies.
4. The Director of the U.S. National Economic Council, Hassett, hinted at 'big news on tariffs.' U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent believes that the bond market is calling for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and he is talking about the U.S.-Ukraine agreement!
5. According to Yuyuantan Tian, the U.S. side is proactively contacting China through various channels, hoping to negotiate on tariff issues. There are also reports that the Trump administration is about to announce the first batch of agreements, which will reduce proposed tariffs on some countries, alleviating some concerns about the global trade outlook.
According to Newsmax, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Ross stated that at least one trade agreement is about to be announced, and more trade agreements are nearing completion. Trump may be waiting for an opportunity to announce them together.
Federal Reserve
The negative growth of the U.S. economy has prompted traders to increase their bets on the Federal Reserve's monetary easing policy. The market currently expects the central bank to cut interest rates four times by 25 basis points this year to avoid economic recession.
The market believes that trade tensions are easing, and concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are diminishing, thus currently reducing the demand for safe-haven assets.
Today (Friday), let's focus on the data released at 8:30 PM: non-farm payrolls and the U.S. unemployment rate for April. If the market responds positively, Bitcoin may return to the 100,000 mark, and reaching 2000 for Ethereum is not difficult. It is recommended to operate short-term with Bitcoin and be prepared for new challenges this evening!
Additionally, during the May Day holiday, everyone should pay attention to safety while traveling, arrange their schedules reasonably, maintain a healthy physique, and relax with family and friends to enjoy the festive happiness! The trading halt situation at various exchanges during the May Day holiday is as follows:
