1. Core Logic
Trend Following + Technical Indicator Resonance: Use EMA to determine trend direction, MACD to confirm momentum changes, and RSI to assist in filtering entry timing, with all three working together to improve win rate.
2. Indicator Analysis Framework
1. EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
- Parameter Selection:
- Short-term EMA: 7 periods (capture short-term fluctuations)
- Medium-term EMA: 30 periods (filter noise)
- Long-term EMA: 100 periods (determine major trend)
- Application Rules:
- Bullish Trend Confirmation: Price > EMA30 > EMA100, and EMA7 crosses above EMA30 (Golden Cross)
- Trend Continuation Signal: Price rebounds after retracing to EMA7 or EMA30
- Risk Warning: EMA7 crosses below EMA30 (Death Cross) or price falls below EMA100
2. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
- Parameter Setting: Default (12, 26, 9)
- Key Signals:
- Bullish Signal: MACD line (fast line) crosses above signal line (slow line), histogram turns positive
- Momentum Enhancement: MACD bars continue to expand and are above the zero line
- Divergence Warning: Price makes new highs, but MACD does not confirm new highs (potential reversal risk)
3. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
- Parameter Setting: 14 periods (balance sensitivity)
- Application Rules:
- Oversold Rebound: RSI<30 turns upward (in line with trend direction)
- Trend Continuation: In a strong trend, RSI > 70 then briefly retraces before rising again
- Divergence Signal: Price reaches new highs but RSI does not (beware of reversal)
3. Long Position Strategy Process
Step 1: Trend Determination (EMA Dominant)
- Major Trend: Daily EMA30 > EMA100, and price is above EMA30
- Short-term: 4-hour chart EMA7 > EMA30, price does not deviate from long-term moving average
Step 2: Entry Signal (MACD + RSI Resonance)
- Ideal Conditions:
1. Price rebounds after retracing to EMA30 or EMA7
2. MACD Golden Cross and histogram turns positive
3. RSI rises from <50 to above 50 (or rebounds from oversold area)
Step 3: Stop Loss and Position Management
- Stop Loss: 2%~3% below EMA30 (or previous low support level)
- Leverage: ≤5 times (to avoid extreme volatility liquidation)
- Partial Profit Taking:
- First Target: Previous high resistance level (reduce position by 50% when RSI > 70)
- Second Target: Liquidate when EMA7 crosses below EMA30
Step 4: Risk Filtering
- Avoidance Scenarios:
- MACD and price show bearish divergence + RSI > 70
- Volume shrinks and breaks above EMA100
4. Practical Case (BTC/USDT)
1. Trend Confirmation: Daily EMA30 crosses above EMA100, price stabilizes above EMA30
2. Entry Timing:
- 4-hour chart price retraces to EMA30, MACD Golden Cross
- RSI rises from 45 to 55
3. Stop Loss Setting: 2.5% below EMA30
4. Exit Signal: Price makes new highs, then MACD bars decrease in volume, RSI > 75
5. Notes
1. Indicator Priority: EMA > MACD > RSI (Trend > Momentum > Sentiment)
2. Market Characteristics: Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and on-chain data (such as net inflow to exchanges) should be combined to enhance signals
3. Backtesting: Historical data tests parameter adaptability (e.g., EMA period can be adjusted to 20/50)
Using multiple indicators to filter noise can improve the win rate and risk-reward ratio for long positions, but strict risk control must still be implemented.
