I. Core logic
Trend following + technical indicator resonance: Determine trend direction through EMA, confirm momentum changes with MACD, and use RSI to assist in filtering entry timing, with all three working together to improve win rate.
II. Indicator analysis framework
1. EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
- Parameter selection:
- Short-term EMA: 7 periods (capture short-term fluctuations)
- Medium-term EMA: 30 periods (filter noise)
- Long-term EMA: 100 periods (to judge the major trend)
- Application rules:
- Bullish trend confirmation: Price > EMA30 > EMA100, and EMA7 crosses above EMA30 (Golden cross)
- Trend continuation signal: Price rebounds after pulling back to EMA7 or EMA30
- Risk warning: EMA7 crosses below EMA30 (death cross) or price falls below EMA100
2. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
- Parameter settings: Default (12,26,9)
- Key signals:
- Bullish signal: MACD line (fast line) crosses above signal line (slow line), histogram turns positive from negative
- Strengthening momentum: MACD bars continue to expand and stay above the zero line
- Divergence warning: Price makes a new high, MACD does not confirm a new high (potential reversal risk)
3. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
- Parameter settings: 14 periods (balance sensitivity)
- Application rules:
- Oversold rebound: RSI < 30 turns upwards (in line with trend direction)
- Trend continuation: In a strong trend, RSI > 70 after a brief pullback before surging again
- Divergence signal: Price makes a new high but RSI does not (beware of reversal)
III. Long position strategy flow
Step 1: Trend determination (EMA dominant)
- Major trend: Daily EMA30 > EMA100, and price is above EMA30
- Small cycle: 4-hour chart EMA7 > EMA30, price not deviating from long-term moving average
Step 2: Entry signal (MACD + RSI resonance)
- Ideal conditions:
1. Price rebounds after pulling back to EMA30 or EMA7
2. MACD golden cross and histogram turns red
3. RSI rises from < 50 to above 50 (or rebounds from oversold area)
Step 3: Stop-loss and position management
- Stop-loss: 2%~3% below EMA30 (or previous low support level)
- Leverage: ≤ 5 times (to avoid extreme volatility liquidation)
- Partial profit-taking:
- First target: Previous high resistance level (reduce position by 50% when RSI > 70)
- Second target: Liquidate when EMA7 crosses below EMA30
Step 4: Risk filtering
- Avoid scenarios:
- MACD and price form a top divergence + RSI > 70
- Volume shrinks and breaks EMA100
IV. Practical cases (BTC/USDT)
1. Trend confirmation: Daily EMA30 crosses above EMA100, price stabilizes above EMA30
2. Entry timing:
- Price pulls back to EMA30 on the 4-hour chart, MACD golden cross
- RSI rises from 45 to 55
3. Stop-loss setting: 2.5% below EMA30
4. Exit signal: Price makes a new high, then MACD bars decrease in volume, RSI > 75
V. Notes
1. Indicator priority: EMA > MACD > RSI (Trend > Momentum > Sentiment)
2. Market characteristics: Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, need to combine on-chain data (e.g., net inflow into exchanges) to enhance signals
3. Backtesting validation: Historical data tests parameter adaptability (e.g., EMA periods can be adjusted to 20/50)
Filtering noise through multiple indicators resonance can improve the win rate and profit-loss ratio of contract long positions, but strict risk control must still be executed.
