The well-known CryptoQuant analyst Axel Junior Adler published a fresh Bitcoin forecast, outlining 3 possible market development scenarios for the next 6 months. According to him, at the moment, the on-chain momentum index is in the rally initiation zone, having reached a level of 0.8 or 80%. This signals a potential start of a major upward movement, the outcome of which will depend on the dynamics of the key Ratio indicator.
In the optimistic scenario, it will exceed the mark of 1.0 and secure above it. Then the NUPL and MVRV metrics will create a new momentum, and the price of Bitcoin may reach the range of $150,000 – $175,000. This scenario will mimic market behavior during the bull cycles of 2017 and 2021. Such dynamics will enhance interest from institutional investors and pave the way for new historical highs.
The baseline scenario implies maintaining the Ratio in the range of 0.8 – 1.0. In this case, the price will move in a wide sideways range from $90,000 to $110,000. Market participants will maintain positions but will not increase volumes. This will allow for the accumulation of liquidity and the establishment of a stable base for future upward movement.
The pessimistic scenario assumes a decrease in the Ratio to 0.75 and below. Then, short-term holders will start to take profits, which will lead to a correction in the BTC price in the range of $70,000 – $85,000. However, according to the analyst, considering the correction that has already occurred, the likelihood of this scenario is lower than the first two. 📌Junior Adler publishes extensive reviews on the Substack platform every week. He analyzes not only on-chain data but also macroeconomics, the stock market, futures, and current news, providing practical recommendations for Bitcoin investors. As of May 1, 2025, the Bitcoin price has risen by 1.23% in a day and is around $96,165.
