No way! This data must be wrong! The probability of a financial crisis in the U.S. has surged threefold! It has reached 66%. Is it doomsday celebration? Or is the bull market born out of despair?
Extreme situations have appeared in Bitcoin on-chain data, market signals are chaotic, how should we investors decide?
The coin you are holding is very likely to crash; I am preparing to short it with all my might. So what exactly is happening in the market? Let's find out!
The current Bitcoin on-chain data is really pathological. Look at this vertical line; there are too many whales entering the market, almost emptying the exchanges, continuously moving coins from exchanges to their cold wallets. In the past, whenever this situation occurred, Bitcoin started to surge afterward.
In addition, Wall Street's Bitcoin ETF has been buying continuously, with net inflows for nine consecutive days, which is very rare.
If you look at the greed and fear index with nearly 100% win rate, the current fear index is in the 60-70 greed range. Once it goes a bit higher, it will be in the extreme greed zone, which is when we should completely exit. Therefore, we are getting closer to the exit signal, and the peak of this price increase is likely to be just over 100,000. If you're eager, you can also take profits from part of your position in advance; there’s no problem.
When we initially bought the dip, we relied on this divine indicator. I said every time there is extreme panic, it is your opportunity to go all in. At that time, the coin price was over 70,000, and it was truly a golden opportunity everywhere. We bought the dip with Sol, which had a larger increase. Now that most of the gains have already been realized, you need to start thinking about when to exit.
My plan is the Prague upgrade on May 7. On that day, I may sell a large portion of my holdings and watch the market for a week or two. After last year's upgrade, the crypto market corrected quite a bit. Additionally, after Trump took office on January 20, the crypto market also experienced a situation where benefits were exhausted and began to plummet. Shuqin advised everyone to exit at the peak, so this time will be no exception. I will first exit and observe for a few weeks; I would rather earn less than get stuck at the peak.
Speaking of exhausting benefits, there is now a 100% sure operation, which is to short Trump coins a few days before May 22.
We know that Trump will hold a dinner for the first 220 token holders on May 22, so many whales and retail investors eager to participate rushed in. For instance, this whale added 3 million USDT to Trump yesterday, bringing its total holdings to 19 million dollars, all to attend the dinner.
As for Trump's team, they are throwing unlocked coins into the market, transferring 20 million dollars worth of coins to exchanges, starting to cash out.
The reason there hasn't been a significant crash now is that the dinner's positive outlook makes retail investors feel there is still hope. However, once we reach the day of the dinner or even a few days before, the price of their coins is very likely to exhaust its benefits and begin to adjust, especially after the dinner ends. The top 200 whales will have participated and may find no reason to hold anymore, leading many to sell out, fearing they will end up as bag holders.
So whether from the perspective of exhausted benefits or the logic of events, the odds of shorting at that time are very high, after all, even his own team is selling. Therefore, for those holding Trump coins, I suggest you run away quickly when it hits a high point. And for those who missed the Trump surge, don't lose heart; we can wait until the dinner approaches to short and make a big leap!
In addition, we saw this afternoon that Nasdaq futures broke through. I said Bitcoin is also very likely to break through. Just two hours after saying that, Bitcoin broke through 95,000. Congratulations to everyone!
It doesn't matter if we missed this wave; we can still invest in small coins for rebound. Pepe is performing steadily, and Sol and Sui can also be arranged. The risks are comparatively larger with smaller market cap coins, but Turbo, WIF, and Floki are worth a look.
But pay attention to whether Bitcoin can continue to rise; it has only gone up a little bit now. If it falls back again, that would be a false breakout. Small coins need to be sold again until BTC breaks the previous high again. This is risk control; it's very important to take small losses for big gains, otherwise, one might get stuck at the peak.
As for ETH spot, I've said I will hold it until the upgrade. From 1500, it has almost reached 1900 now. Our reduction is worthwhile! These operational points are updated in real-time every day; feel free to check them out if interested.
Okay, besides yesterday's PCE inflation data, there is another important indicator coming out this week, which is the unemployment rate and employment data at 8:30 PM on Friday. It's very critical and can easily lead to surprises.
This market expects the unemployment rate to remain unchanged; this fluctuation is generally not considered large. However, the market's expectations for employment numbers are very extreme, dropping from the previous value of 228,000 to 134,000, nearly halving.
I think if the actual result is a moderate decline, such as dropping from 228,000 to 160,000, it would be beneficial for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. However, if it drops too much, it will trigger concerns about a market recession, which is a double-edged sword.
For instance, the prediction market is very pessimistic, believing the probability of the U.S. entering recession by 2025 is as high as 66%, and it remains high even after Trump announced a slowdown in tariff policies. So we really can't be too optimistic now; stay vigilant and be ready to take profits and exit at any time.
Because although the Federal Reserve will significantly reduce interest rates in the second half of the year, the potential in the crypto market is astounding. However, if we truly encounter a recession at the beginning, the crypto market and U.S. stocks may first face a second bottom before rising again; this is also a possibility. I sincerely hope we can take profits smoothly and make a big gain, okay!