Master discusses hot topics:
Once last night's GDP and PCE data came out, it looked quite shocking at first glance. The first quarter GDP fell by 0.3% year-on-year, far below expectations, and PCE was outrageously high, clearly a scenario of recession + inflation! Logically, this data is scary enough, but the market only fell slightly.
The market isn't foolish; although the data looks weak, it's not at the point of confirming a recession, so it can't fall too much. In plain terms, the support below is still strong.
Moreover, Trump has been actively promoting negotiations recently. As long as the uncertainty regarding tariffs and policies doesn't completely explode, market sentiment won't be too bad.
Looking at the GDP data, it's a bit complicated. On the one hand, it's negative since it did drop by 0.3%, and the market also fell along with it; but on the other hand, it's not that the U.S. economy is terrible, as consumption is quite stable, having risen by 3%, which is also at the average line.
There isn't much to pay attention to regarding PCE data, but one should keep an eye on the U.S. wage and consumption data from March. Wages have dropped while consumption has increased; people are struggling without money. How can that be good?
If the unemployment rate in the U.S. rises again tomorrow night, the economy will look even worse. However, as long as Trump doesn't cause trouble, the earnings reports this week are decent, and the market should be able to maintain recovery in the short term; the key will be tomorrow night's non-farm payroll data.
Back to Bitcoin, yesterday Master predicted a short that captured 2000 points and another 1600 points. The daily chart has been sideways for eight or nine days, and based on experience, usually on the 10th to 11th day, there will be a change. Tomorrow night is the non-farm payroll, the crucial moment has arrived! If it's favorable news, it will directly rush to 98 to 100K.
If it's bearish, it will first drop to around 92.7k. If it rebounds and recovers above 94.6k, it will still be bullish; if it can't recover and breaks below 92k, it will turn bearish.
Therefore, in response to news, one must have two plans. If 95.7k breaks through again, it will be a new high. Remember to guard against 96k for short positions. For low buys, keep it simple: either protect your capital loss or set a stop around 93.6k. If it breaks below 93.6k, buy low between 93.3k and 92.8k.
The support around 9.3k is quite strong; it would only undergo daily-level adjustments if it breaks below the midline of the 12-hour Bollinger Bands. If it retraces to 92 to 90k and holds the rebound, the adjustment will be over, and it will move upwards. Currently, the daily line doesn't have a top divergence, so don't chase shorts casually; in the short term, a brief short on highs will suffice.
Master looks at trends:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 96000.
Second resistance level: 95300.
Support level reference:
First support level: 94300.
Second support level: 93600.
Today's suggestions:
Bitcoin experienced a significant drop after the GDP data was released last night, but then formed a double bottom pattern and entered a rebound phase. The reason to pay attention to previous lows is that if the previous low can hold during a sharp decline, it will form a double bottom pattern, providing support for subsequent rebounds.
Bitcoin has tested the resistance level of 95.3k multiple times but has not managed to break through, indicating strong resistance. Once it successfully breaks through, a rapid rise may occur in the short term.
If it breaks through the first resistance, the price could look to 96k in the short term. The range of 94 to 94.3k is an important support level, as this is also the area for the 20, 60, 120, and 200-day moving averages. If the price can hold above these moving averages and begins to diverge after overlapping, it will continue to open up a bullish trend.
Conversely, if the price breaks below the first support, one must pay attention to whether it can hold above the 200-day moving average. If the price continues to make new lows, further adjustments will occur. However, even if there is an adjustment, don't rush to be bearish; the focus should still be on previous lows to find short-term entry opportunities.
Master's wave prediction:
Long entry reference: long in batches within the range of 93600-94300. Target: 95300-96000.
Short entry reference: short in batches within the range of 96000-95300. Target: 94300-93600.
