Trump's tariff policy, which has knocked down U.S. stock markets by $6 trillion, is based on a well-thought-out strategy. Behind seemingly unpredictable decisions lies the concept of Stephen Miran – the chief economic advisor to the White House.
In November 2024, he published 'User Guide to Restructuring the Global Trade System,' which is intended to become the ideological basis for replacing the Bretton Woods system with a new concept that is already being called the 'Mar-a-Lago Agreement.'
The essence is simple: the U.S. provides the world with two 'public goods' – military protection and a reserve currency. Currently, all of this is paid for by American taxpayers. According to the new concept, the financial burden should shift onto the shoulders of partners, in simpler terms – onto the entire world.
Miran proposes five ways in which countries can pay for 'public goods': submissively accept American tariffs; open their markets to goods from the U.S.; increase defense spending and purchase more American weaponry; invest in building factories on U.S. territory or directly finance the U.S. Treasury.
According to Miran's logic, imposing high tariffs on active exporters should lead to an increase in U.S. budget revenues and force countries to either pay this 'tribute' or relocate production to America.
However, Miran's economic logic has a vulnerable point. When, after World War II, the U.S. offered the world a 'package of services' – the dollar, NATO, the IMF, and the World Bank – they themselves sought global leadership to contain communism. Now, on one hand, Trump wishes to monetize this influence, while on the other hand, he is dismantling the very tools of influence. The result of such contradictory policies may not be a new world order, but a series of economic upheavals.