I. Market news: Monthly closing and policy impact resonate
1. Bitcoin monthly increase in April: Bitcoin rose a total of 12.3% in April, closing in the range of 93,300-96,500 USD, but there is dense selling liquidity at 96,000 USD above, a breakout requires volume support.
2. Weak non-farm data triggers market divergence: ADP employment data (small non-farm) shows weak job growth in the private sector, with 'unease' filling the U.S. job market, directly pointing to Trump.
3. Trump's remarks impact market confidence: Trump blames the first quarter GDP negative growth (-0.3%) on Biden's policies, stating that 'the stock market is just an indicator,' implying that the economy may continue to shrink in the second quarter. Coupled with tariff policies, risks in the global trade chain are rising.
II. Technical analysis: The divide between bulls and bears has emerged
1. Key levels contention in the short term
- Support level: 93,000 (March low + monthly 5-day moving average) → If it breaks down or dips to 89,000;
- Resistance level: 95,500 (pre-non-farm high) → A breakout requires stability above 96,000;
- Volume-price divergence: RSI (14) in overbought area turns, MACD shows initial death cross, beware of daily level pullback.
III. Predictions for the next 24 hours and operational strategies
1. Long position strategy
- Aggressive: Light positions long at 93,000-93,500, stop loss at 92,200, target 95,000;
- Conservative: Wait to build positions in batches below 92,500, betting on a monthly level double bottom rebound.
2. Short position strategy
- Short-term: Short in the 95,500-96,000 range, stop loss at 97,000, target 93,000-93,500;
- Medium-term: If it breaks below 93,000, short at 94,000 on rebound, target 89,000.
3. Risk warning:
- Beware of non-farm data exceeding expectations triggering a decline in U.S. stocks; if the S&P 500 loses key levels, it may drag down Bitcoin.
