Market news: Long and short game intensifies
1. Bitcoin price pullback: Bitcoin price quickly fell from 95,500 USD to 93,600 USD early this morning, with a 24-hour decline of 2.5%, and a total liquidation amount of 680 million USD (with long positions accounting for 73%).
2. ETF funds continue to flow in: the weekly net purchase amount of Bitcoin spot ETF reached 3 billion US dollars, BlackRock's IBIT has increased its holdings by more than 12,000 BTC for three consecutive days, and institutional bottom-fishing signals are significant.
3. Macroeconomic policy disturbances:
- MasterCard breakthrough cooperation: announces an additional 'stablecoin settlement' option for merchants, collaborating with Circle, Paxos, and OKX to launch cryptocurrency credit cards, stablecoins may become mainstream payment tools;
- Acceleration of cryptocurrency ETFs in South Korea: The ruling party plans to allow spot ETF trading within the year, abolishing the 'one exchange one bank' restriction and expanding bank access rights;
- French luxury brands entering the space: Messika jewelry globally supports BTC/ETH payments, Lunu provides real-time exchange rate settlements, with cryptocurrency penetration in the luxury goods sector increasing by 47% year on year.
4. Miner dynamics: Affected by the tariffs on mining chips, small and medium mining farms are accelerating their exit, and the overall network computing power volatility is rising, which may exacerbate short-term selling pressure.
II. Technical analysis in depth
1. Key level battle for Bitcoin (BTC)
- Daily level: Price forms a 'double pivot oscillation' in the range of 95,000-96,000, EMA15 support rises to 94,500, MACD top divergence continues, short-term vigilance is needed for a pullback to the 93,000-94,000 support area;
- 4-hour chart: Bollinger Bands are parallel, if it breaks 95,500 it may trigger a rebound to 96,500, otherwise it may retrace to the 93,500 mid-band support.
2. Ethereum (ETH) correlated movement
- Narrow oscillation in the range of 17,80-18,40 during the day, MACD shrinking shows insufficient momentum, if it breaks below 17,50 it may test 17,00; breaking above 18,50 would see resistance at 19,30.
III. Market sentiment and capital trends
- Fear and Greed Index: The current market is on the edge of 'extreme greed', with significant long and short divergences, and noticeable selling pressure around 95,500;
- Capital flow: ETF funds are shifting from gold to Bitcoin, with short-term profit-taking dominating the fluctuations;
- Major player dynamics: Standard Chartered points out that 'whales' are continuously accumulating during the pullback, possibly building strength for the next rally.
IV. Today's operational strategy reference
Bitcoin (BTC)
- Long positions: build positions in batches in the range of 93,300-94,300, stop loss at 92,500, target at 95,500-96,500;
- Short positions: lightly short in the range of 95,500-96,000, stop loss at 97,000, target at 94,200-93,300.
Ethereum (ETH)
- Long positions: enter in the support area of 17,50-17,70, stop loss at 17,20, target at 18,30-18,60;
- Short positions: test shorts in the pressure area of 18,30-18,60, stop loss at 18,80, target at 17,80-17,50. V. Long-term trend outlook
- Bullish logic: Easing of US policies (such as Trump’s tariff grace period), widespread stablecoin settlements, and institutional ETF entry may push Bitcoin to break 100,000 USD;
- Risk warning: If the 93,000 support is lost, it may pull back to 90,000; short-term overbought needs to be vigilant for technical pullbacks.
Pay attention to: btc, eth, mkr, sol, bnb, sui, xrp
