There is a hypothesis suggesting that the price of Bitcoin could increase by up to 50% in the coming months, potentially reaching $150,000 USD. This prediction is based on a historical pattern that has occurred at least three times in recent history (July 2021, January 2023, and January 2024), each time followed by strong increases in the price of BTC.
Three macroeconomic conditions in the U.S. have coincided during those previous times and seem to correlate with increases in Bitcoin:
Low financial leverage (low funding rate)
Retail sales above expectations
Aggressive messages from the Federal Reserve (Fed) regarding restrictive monetary policy
Every time these conditions have coexisted:
July 2021: +76%
January 2023: +50%
January 2024: +80%
Current situation (April 2025):
The funding rate of BTC is low, as in previous cases.
March retail sales exceeded expectations, although they may be inflated by advance purchases due to new tariffs.
The Fed does not seem willing to raise rates in May, but a cut is expected in June. Only if Jerome Powell (Chairman of the Fed) rules out that cut in his speech on May 7 will the third condition of the pattern be met.
Important warning from the analysis:
Although the pattern may repeat, it does not guarantee an increase. The behavior of the price of Bitcoin is also influenced by other factors, especially by the dollar index (DXY), which has been weak in recent weeks, typically benefiting BTC.
The hypothesis of a +50% increase in the price of BTC is based on past patterns and observable macroeconomic conditions, but it should not be taken as certainty. If the dollar remains weak and the pattern reinforces, it could act as a catalyst for a new bullish momentum, especially during May.
You still have time to start buying Bitcoin cheaply.
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