The market seems to be taking a 'calming pill'! Bad data may be interpreted as good news, watch these points closely tonight

1. Core viewpoints overview

1. Technical aspect: Bitcoin stuck in a consolidation range, bulls and bears at a standstill, tonight's data may be the key to breaking the deadlock


2. Macroeconomic aspect: Federal Reserve official 'Waller' is dovish, the market interprets bad data as a signal for rate cuts


3. Risk warning: Beware of sharp rises and falls after data release, critical level breakthroughs determine short-term direction

2. Bitcoin technical analysis

What's the situation now?

  • Short term: Price oscillates between $94,200 and $95,550, like being pressed on a spring, pushed down and then bouncing back

  • Daily trend: Overall slowly upward, but not at full strength, like holding back a big move

  • Key level:

    • Falling to around 93,500 may attract bottom-fishing funds

    • Breaking above 95,750 may trigger chasing

Market sentiment:

  • Trading volume decreases, everyone is waiting for the GDP data at 8:30 PM and PCE inflation at 10 PM

  • Asian funds continue to enter (USDT increases by 450 million), US funds hesitant (small outflow of USDC)

3. Key macro events

Two 'bombs' tonight

  1. 20:30 US GDP:

    • Expected to be worse than previous value, but the market has anticipated it

    • The key is whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates early due to poor economic conditions

  2. 22:00 Core PCE inflation:

    • If it surges → Concern about 'rising prices + poor economy' (stagflation)

    • If stable → Strengthens rate cut expectations

Waller's 'magic'
Federal Reserve hawkish bigwig suddenly changes stance: 'If the economy is poor, we will cut rates immediately!'
→ Now bad data = likelihood of rate cuts = positive for the crypto space!

Other hot topics:

  • Minor friction between India and Pakistan (temporarily does not affect the market)

  • Arizona may include Bitcoin in reserves (symbolically significant, long-term positive)

5. Trading reminders

Watch the breakout direction:

  • Stand firm above 95,750 → Bullish to previous high

  • Break below 93,500 support → Beware of pullback to 91,600

Volatility warning:
Expect sharp rises and falls within 1 hour after data release, leverage players be cautious of positions!

Summary:

The market is like it's waiting for the starting gun:

  • Technical aspect: The longer the consolidation, the more explosive the breakout

  • Sentiment aspect: Asian funds are active, US funds are cautious

  • Macroeconomic aspect: Bad data may be interpreted as good news

Remember the mantra:
Bad data ≠ guaranteed decline, key to see how the Federal Reserve responds!