1. Market Sentiment: A waiting period wrapped in 'dovish' sentiment

Today's market is a bit 'divided':

On one hand, investors are not worried about a significant decline in US Q1 GDP data, but rather immersed in Fed official Waller's dovish remarks last week—he said that if signs of recession appear, the Fed would cut rates early to stabilize the market. This 'bad news = good news' logic makes everyone feel that the worse the data, the quicker the rate cuts come, potentially pushing risk assets higher.


On the other hand, market actions are indeed cautious:

Bitcoin price oscillated in the 93,500-95,750 range all day, with trading volume down 15% from yesterday. This indicates that people are a bit anxious, waiting for GDP at 20:30 and core PCE data at 22:00 tonight to see if it really is 'bad news fully priced in'.

2. Bitcoin Technicals: Range oscillation waiting for a breakthrough

1. Short-term Trend (1 hour)

  • Price is stuck between 94,200-95,550, oscillating like an elevator.

  • At 7 AM attempted to break the resistance at 95,550 but was quickly pushed back, indicating strong pressure above.

  • Technical indicator RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows 67, not yet in the overbought zone at 70, indicating bulls still have strength.

2. Medium-term Trend (4 hours)

  • Key range 93,500-95,750, amplitude 1,900, slightly wider than yesterday.

  • Support at the bottom near 93,500, recent declines have not broken this level, indicating strong defense from the bulls.

  • Futures market (CME) Bitcoin premium at $700, though lower than yesterday, it remains high, suggesting institutions may be quietly positioning.

3. Long-term Trend (Daily)

  • Price is above MA7 (approximately 94,000), overall trend is upward.

  • The bottom of the range has slowly risen from 93,000 last week to 94,000 this week, indicating market confidence is recovering.

3. Key Data and Events

1. Data Tonight (20:30 GDP/22:00 PCE)

  • GDP: If significantly below expectations (e.g., 0.8%), the market may interpret this as the Fed moving towards quicker rate cuts, potentially pushing Bitcoin higher.

  • PCE: If inflation data exceeds expectations (e.g., 3.1%), it may trigger concerns about stagflation, but the impact could be offset by Waller's dovish comments.

2. Trump's Tariff Policy

  • Tonight, Trump may sign an executive order on auto tariffs, but it is expected to be 'loud but little impact', such as exemptions for certain countries or phased implementation, with limited market impact.

3. Arizona Bitcoin Reserves

  • The state's proposal will take effect after the governor's signature before next Tuesday, allowing 10% of public funds to be used to buy Bitcoin. While it's a long-term positive, in the short term it is merely a 'symbolic' action, and the market reaction is limited.

4. Risks and Opportunities

1. Risk Points

  • Data face change: If both GDP and PCE exceed expectations (e.g., GDP growth 1.5%, PCE inflation 3.2%), the market may panic sell.

  • Geopolitical Conflict: Clashes between India and Pakistan in Kashmir, although currently without major casualties, an escalation could trigger risk aversion.

2. Opportunity Points

  • Breakout scenario: If Bitcoin holds above 95,750, it may initiate a new round of increase, targeting 98,000.

  • Capital inflow: USDT in the Asian market continues to increase by 450 million, indicating that funds are quietly positioning.

5. Operational Recommendations

  • Short-term traders: Buy low and sell high in the 93,500-95,750 range, and manage stop losses.

  • Long-term holders: Add to positions if it breaks below 91,600 (daily MA120), focus on the breakout signal above 95,750.

  • Observers: Waiting for tonight's data to decide on the direction to avoid being 'cut' by volatility.


Summary: The market now resembles a game of 'eagle catching chicks', with everyone focused on the Fed's 'rate cut jelly beans', but volatility before data release may intensify. Stay calm, control positions, and don't be swayed by short-term fluctuations.