Article reprinted from: Foresight News
Author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise
Translated by: Luffy, Foresight News
Earlier this month, I delivered a closing speech at the end of the first day of a national brokerage conference.
This is itself quite notable. The four major brokerages (Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and UBS) control over $10 trillion in client assets, and these platforms have not yet made it easy for their advisors to access Bitcoin ETFs. But as the invitation for my keynote speech suggests, this situation is rapidly changing.
In fact, I expect that by the end of this year, all four major brokerages will launch Bitcoin ETF services. This is also one of the reasons I still expect Bitcoin ETFs to set a new record for net inflows this year, even though the $3.7 billion net inflow so far in 2025 is 'only' compared to $35 billion in 2024.
I am not writing this article to discuss the issues with brokerages. Instead, I want to share a story from an audience member.
If no one believes in Bitcoin anymore, what will I have left?
The most exciting parts of the speech often come at the end. You walk off the stage hoping to hear applause, only to be surrounded by a group wanting to ask follow-up questions. These questions are the best.
After the event, one person patiently waited as the other twenty or thirty people took turns asking questions. Then he said:
"I listened to what you said, and it makes a lot of sense. But I just can't overcome the mental barrier."
This is a very common emotion. People rationally understand the reasons for investing in Bitcoin and find it very attractive, but something always seems to stop them from buying.
After delving into his concerns, we clarified what that 'thing' was: he worried about what would happen to Bitcoin if no one believed in it anymore.
"If this 'music' stops, how much will Bitcoin be worth?" he asked.
The answer is, of course, worthless. If no one in the world wants to hold Bitcoin, then its value is zero.
I pointed out that the same is true for gold and other assets, but he insisted it was different. Perhaps he is right; with gold, at least you have that shiny physical asset; but with Bitcoin, you really have nothing.
Honestly, I used to have the same thoughts, and I suspect most Bitcoin investors have too; the lack of physicality of Bitcoin is indeed a challenge.
My suggestion: write it down.
My new friend was about to leave, still with a conflicted expression on his face. At that moment, I asked him a simple question: what conditions would need to be met? In other words, how would he believe that Bitcoin would continue to exist?
For some people, their answer to this question makes them realize they will never buy Bitcoin. If you are waiting for Bitcoin to become more popular than gold... or waiting for its volatility to approach zero... then you will never buy Bitcoin.
But if you don't have these barriers, it's worth seriously asking: what conditions would need to be met?
Is it institutional custody? Nowadays, publicly traded companies like Coinbase and well-known institutions like Fidelity are custodians of Bitcoin, followed closely by financial giants like BNY Mellon.
Is it institutional trading? Nowadays, Bitwise engages in crypto trading with established companies like Jane Street and Cumberland/DRW.
Is it institutional adoption? Nowadays, nine of the ten largest hedge funds in the world hold Bitcoin, alongside Emory University (with a $11 billion endowment), the Texas Teacher Retirement System (managing $210 billion in assets), and investment titans like Ray Dalio and Stan Druckenmiller, along with many other institutions that also hold Bitcoin.
Is it the participation of large asset management firms? Are companies like BlackRock and Invesco enough?
Is it corporate adoption? There are Strategy, Block, Tesla, and more than eighty other listed companies involved.
Is it easily accessible? There are already Bitcoin ETFs.
Is it investment model adoption? BlackRock now recommends that investors allocate 2% of their portfolios to Bitcoin.
Is it regulatory stability? Legislation related to market structure is expected to pass Congress this year.
Is it government adoption? The U.S. is establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Whatever the conditions, write them down. Because if we look back a few years, we thought certain things, like the U.S. government holding Bitcoin or the largest asset management companies accepting this asset, seemed unattainable, but now we've seen these things happen.
My friend thought for a moment, took a deep breath, and then said: "I am going to buy Bitcoin."
I think many people will come to the same conclusion this year.
