The current situation of BTC is a bit delicate: there are too many short positions piled up around 96,500, reaching a level where a slight movement could lead to liquidation. This is very similar to the situation when it broke through 85,000 with short positions clustering. However, the liquidity gap between 97k and 98k has not been filled yet, so in the short term, it is very likely that the shorts around 96,500 will be swept away, but whether it can surge above 98k with this momentum is still uncertain.

I personally think there may be two scenarios:

1️⃣ Data-driven stimulus: After the macro data (small non-farm payroll, GDP) is released on Wednesday and Thursday, the price might quickly spike to clear out the shorts around 96,500, then pull back, returning to the current range for further consolidation. After that, it will depend on how the new long and short positions are distributed before Friday to determine if it really has reached a bottom.

2️⃣ Reverse ambush: If the market perceives the data as negative after it is released, the price might directly drop, skipping the liquidation of the 96,500 shorts. However, if after this pullback, the longs do not rush to add positions and the leverage is not too high, there is a possibility that it could rise again, specifically targeting those shorts that have not been liquidated.

The key point is the big non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data on Friday, which will likely cause the market to swing wildly, even playing a trick of "first clearing out the shorts and then crashing the market." In terms of trading, do not be too aggressive, especially avoid heavily shorting around 96,500, as you may be targeted by the market makers.