Advisor discusses hot topics:
The May Day holiday is here, and those large investors in the A-shares market might enter during the holiday. The main players may drive up stock prices following the trend, so as long as Bitcoin's key support level holds, there is still room for upward movement.
Additionally, tomorrow there will be an interest rate meeting in Japan. If the result shows no rate hike, Bitcoin is likely to surge immediately. And on May 5, the last day of the holiday, especially late at night, the main players will likely take advantage of everyone feeling sleepy to launch a surprise sell-off.
It is even possible that it will start as early as the evening of May 4, Sunday, to pave the way for the Federal Reserve meeting two days later. Generally, the market starts to fluctuate 1-2 days before a meeting, and once the US market opens on May 7, it is likely to show a drop.
So next week, bulls should be cautious; use low leverage and light positions to hold on. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is on May 8, and the main players usually exit to watch the show 24 hours in advance. It's not bad news that no rate cuts are expected in May, but there is a decent chance of a cut in June, and May might eat the favorable news for June in advance.
So the advisor advises you not to short aggressively at a single point, as prolonged sideways movement can lead to unexpected issues. Always set a stop loss for the last trade, and trying to short with light positions in batches at new highs between 96.6k and 99.2k is still possible.
Back to Bitcoin, in the medium term, the support seems quite strong, and it shouldn't drop too severely for now. Although the 12-hour MACD has already crossed bearish, indicating a drop, it is still far from the zero line, and the lower Bollinger band on the 4 to 8-hour chart is still supporting it.
Therefore, it must break below 92700 for a significant drop to be possible; this is a key level. The day before yesterday, it bounced back 2800 points after testing this point, so it is likely to rebound if it touches this level in the short term.
Now, let's talk about Ethereum. The recent rebound is quite strong, but the advisor doesn't think it will last, mainly because there's no compelling independent story to tell. However, those wealthy Americans are indeed buying ETH like crazy; I guess it's mostly because Bitcoin is rising, pulling up these smaller players.
Although from Monday's data, the net inflow of ETH spot ETFs is quite strong, BlackRock's team bought over 37,000 coins, which is more than last Friday. Grayscale's Mini ETF is also not to be outdone, adding over 5000 ETH on Monday, and recent selling of ETHE is also quite low.
However, the advisor still feels that this wave of ETH is just riding on Bitcoin's momentum. If Bitcoin doesn't move up, ETH will also struggle. Also, let's wait for the US GDP data to come out tonight and see which way the wind blows.
Advisor observes the trend:
Reference for resistance level:
First resistance level: 96000
Second resistance level: 95300
Reference for support level:
First support level: 94000
Second support level: 93400
Today's suggestion:
Yesterday, Bitcoin was unable to successfully hold above 95.5k. If it fails to stabilize again upon retesting, it will trigger a disappointing sell-off. Therefore, under the condition that 94K maintains as a support level, it is advised to adopt a conservative trading strategy.
The first resistance at 95.3K is a clear high point, so it needs to break above 95K and hold steady above 95.3K to expect further upward movement.
The first support at 94K is the closing bearish candlestick from yesterday and the starting point of the rebound; it can be seen as the current key low point. 94K is an important support level, and if this level is broken, the downward momentum will continue in the short term.
If the price breaks below the upward trend line and the area between 93.8k and 94k, a short-term sharp drop may occur, and 93.4K can be seen as a potential ultra-short entry opportunity.
From the chart trend, even if a long bearish candlestick appears, Bitcoin can recover quickly, indicating that buying pressure is still active. With 94K and the upward trend line as support below, it is recommended to focus on bullish positions in the short term while paying attention to the risk-reward ratio.
4.30 Advisor's wave entry:
Reference for long entry position: batch buy in the range of 93400-94000, target: 95300-96000
Reference for short entry position: batch sell in the range of 95300-96000, target: 94000-93400
