On Wednesday (April 30), Ether hovered around $1805, with bulls temporarily retreating to catch their breath. So far this year, the correlation between Ether and Bitcoin has severely decoupled, dropping by more than 45%. As Bitcoin bulls return, traders are closely watching for bottom signals from Ether. Analysts point out that the key indicator LTH-NUPL has entered the red zone, indicating signs of a buying opportunity.
Chinese analyst Phyrex Ni wrote: “This data of LTH-NUPL is something I have always liked to use when observing Bitcoin. I didn't write it in detail yesterday because I had to coordinate a lot of data, but indeed, from a historical perspective, this data has never been wrong; buying in the red zone has always yielded good returns. This time, the red zone is below $1500, and it appeared for a very short time.”
LTH-NUPL, which stands for Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, is an on-chain data indicator used to measure the overall profitability status of long-term holders (LTH), thereby assessing market sentiment and potential trends. This indicator is commonly used in the analysis of crypto markets like Bitcoin.
Phyrex emphasized: “Of course, I am not saying that one should bottom-fish for Ether right now, as there are still GDP and PCE data from the United States that have not been released. The market's trend is still unclear, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has not truly shifted. If a recession occurs, it cannot be ruled out that the red part may continue to worsen.”
“For example, in 2018, it started entering the red zone from $200, but at its lowest, it dropped to $84. So red is just a zone that needs to be closely monitored. As for when to buy, it depends on the individual. Personally, I plan to allocate some every time it enters the red zone,” he continued.
Looking at the historical perspective of Ether's breakout point, from the red bottoming period to the green rising period and the blue top period, it often takes more than eight months to reach green and generally takes over a year to reach blue, except for the time when it just exploded in 2016.
“So from this perspective, even in the absence of an economic recession, this red zone is the lowest point, which is when it is below $1500. Therefore, Ether's breakout is likely to be at the end of 2025 or in 2026.”
“If the economy goes into recession, then the position in red may strengthen, and the timing would need to be recalculated. But overall, at least historically up to now, this data has never missed.”
“If you follow the strategy of starting to buy when entering the red, then there is still more than 20% profit as of now.”
As for Bitcoin, keeping a long-term watch, its LTH-NUPL is still in the early stages of entering that zone.
