Article source: Trading Moment
1. Market Observation
Keywords: ALPACA, MIKAMI, BTC
The May Day holiday is approaching, and the U.S. will announce the Q1 2025 GDP data tonight, which will be an important assessment of the economic situation during Trump's early administration. Morgan Stanley downgraded its Q1 GDP expectation from zero growth to a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, Goldman Sachs adjusted from -0.2% to -0.8%, and JPMorgan revised it to -1.75%. The surge in corporate imports due to the panic buying triggered by Trump's tariff threats has widened the trade deficit. Analysts believe that hoarding before the tariffs distorted economic data, and the actual damage may have been exaggerated. Additionally, the U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released on May 2, becoming another market focus. Economists warn that the tariff war initiated by the Trump administration may lead to severe turbulence in the U.S. labor market, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June. Apollo's chief economist predicts that the U.S. labor market may show significant weakness in the coming months. The market generally believes that the tariff dispute may exacerbate inflation, increase unemployment, and even trigger an economic recession.
Bitcoin has oscillated around $94,000-$95,000 for a week, regaining the cost basis level for short-term holders (approximately $92,900). Currently, most institutions hold an optimistic view on Bitcoin, with Standard Chartered's global digital asset research head Geoffrey Kendrick predicting that Bitcoin is expected to reach around $120,000 in the second quarter. Bernstein analysts believe it is a buying opportunity and maintain a year-end target price of $200,000, predicting Bitcoin will reach $500,000 by the end of 2029 and $1 million by the end of 2033. This optimistic sentiment resonates with MicroStrategy's large purchase of $1.42 billion last week, where the company bought 15,355 bitcoins at an average price of $92,737. Furthermore, the recent addition of Bitcoin reserves by the Japanese fashion brand ANAP, American real estate company Cardone Capital, and Brazil's largest commercial bank Itaú is noteworthy. It is also significant that Trump's 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' executive order will reach a critical point on May 5. QCP Capital believes that this capital inflow led by traditional financial institutions makes this market trend more sustainable than before.
Binance's recently launched Alpha points system has become a new battlefield for airdrop hunters, but the speed of new project launches is increasing, and the difficulty of earning points is gradually rising. Recent projects like Sign, MilkyWay, Haedal Protocol, and B² Network have made players exclaim 'it's getting harder and harder.' The market jokingly suggests that there must be someone behind Binance guiding this move. Additionally, ALPACA is about to put on a 'desperate struggle' before being delisted from Binance on May 2, with price drops and spikes becoming the norm, and nearly $40 million in liquidations within 24 hours. After the BONK project team launched Letsbonk.Fun, the NFT whale dingaling is set to release the boop.fun platform, promising an airdrop at launch to continue community enthusiasm. Japanese adult actress Yua Mikami is set to issue the Meme coin MIKAMI after launching an NFT, but has made it clear that it is not aimed at the Japanese market. Looking back, similar projects launched by adult actresses often end in failure, and the market is cautious about their prospects.
2. Key Data (as of April 30, 12:00 HKT)
(Data Source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $95,039.82 (Year-to-date +1.56%), Daily spot trading volume $24.702 billion
Ethereum: $1,808.70 (Year-to-date -45.91%), Daily spot trading volume $13.769 billion
Fear & Greed Index: 56 (Neutral)
Average GAS: BTC 2.25 sat/vB, ETH 0.35 Gwei
Market share: BTC 63.5%, ETH 7.3%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: PUNDIX, SIGN, XRP, SAFE, DRIFT
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.03
Sector changes: NFT sector down 3.5%, Layer 2 sector down 2.22%
24-hour liquidation data: 120,964 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $220 million, including $42.49 million in BTC liquidations, $33.58 million in ETH liquidations, and $36.37 million in ALPACA liquidations
BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line (92,403.85 USD), lower line (90,574.07 USD)
ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line (1,761.90 USD), lower line (1,727.01 USD)
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates frequently through the cost range, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flows (as of April 29)
Bitcoin ETF: $170 million (inflow for 8 days)
Ethereum ETF: $18.4008 million (inflow for 4 days)
4. Today's Outlook
Binance will delist ALPACA, PDA, VIB, and WING on May 2
Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens at 8 AM on April 30, accounting for 1.89% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $25.7 million;
Renzo (REZ) will unlock approximately 527 million tokens at 7 PM on April 30, accounting for 19.57% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $7.4 million;
Kamino (KMNO) will unlock approximately 229 million tokens at 8 PM on April 30, accounting for 16.98% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $14.5 million;
Gunz (GUN) will unlock approximately 83.33 million tokens at 10 PM on April 30, accounting for 13.79% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $5 million.
Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 74 million tokens at 8 AM on May 1, accounting for 2.28% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $267 million;
ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock approximately 44.26 million tokens at 8 AM on May 1, accounting for 5.67% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $11.3 million;
dydx (DYDX) will unlock approximately 8.33 million tokens at 8 AM on May 1, accounting for 1.09% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $5.4 million;
The U.S. will announce the Q1 GDP data on April 30
U.S. initial jobless claims (thousand) for the week ending April 26 (May 1, 20:30)
Actual: Pending release / Previous value: 22.2 / Expected: 22.5
U.S. unemployment rate for April (May 2, 20:30)
Actual: Pending release / Previous value: 4.2% / Expected: 4.2%
U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm employment (thousand) for April (May 2, 20:30)
Actual: Pending release / Previous value: 22.8 / Expected: 13.5
Today's top 500 largest market cap gainers: ALPACA up 250.49%, HOUSE up 79.09%, CTK up 37.16%, SIGN up 34.26%, PUNDIX up 31.88%.
5. Hot News
Standard Crypto partner transferred 2,000 MKR and 20,000 AAVE to Coinbase 1 hour ago
Coinbase executive: The appreciation of gold may cause the U.S. Treasury to purchase Bitcoin sooner than expected
Cardone Capital has established a real estate fund with 10 assets to acquire over 1,000 bitcoins
dingaling will launch the Solana-based token issuance platform boop this week and will conduct an airdrop
A certain whale withdrew 1.5 trillion PEPE from Binance 8 hours ago, worth about $13.54 million
An investor/institution address transferred 9 million UNI to Coinbase Prime 1 hour ago, worth about $47.07 million
El Salvador stated it will continue to buy Bitcoin after reaching an agreement with the International Monetary Fund
Tether minted an additional 2 billion USDT on the Ethereum network
The UK released a draft regulation for crypto assets, bringing cryptocurrency exchanges into the regulatory framework
Binance Wallet will open the 14th TGE: B² Network
DWF Labs announced it will become a market maker for the JST token
Upbit will launch SIGN in the KRW, BTC, USDT markets
Bitcoin exchange supply drops to the lowest level in 7 years
MicroStrategy spent $1.42 billion last week to increase its holdings by 15,355 bitcoins, with an average purchase price of $92,737
