Despite the unclear market direction, the overall profit share of Bitcoin continues to rise. On-chain data shows that over 85% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is in profit, meaning that most investors hold coins with positive returns. Such data is often seen as a "bullish signal," but it is often accompanied by the market entering an "overheated phase (Euphoria Zone)" — where coin prices spike in the short term but the risk of subsequent pullbacks also rises.
The profit ratio has broken through 80%, analysts remind: not far from the "emotional peak."
Bitcoin's "Supply in Profit" has surpassed 85% (currently at 87.2%), which is a positive signal showing high market confidence and a strong bull market atmosphere, but historical experiences bring caution. He stated:
(Bitcoin) Most of the supply being in profit is not a bad thing; rather, it often represents upward price potential.
However, when this ratio approaches or exceeds the threshold of 90%, the market usually enters a "overheated phase" (which is characterized by investor exuberance and excessive expectations), and we are currently nearing this level. Nevertheless, this "overheated phase" is generally very brief, and it is often followed by a "short to medium-term correction."
In other words, when the vast majority of people are in profit, it is often also the time when smart money quietly takes profits.
Market thermometer: funding rate remains neutral, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.
It is worth noting that, despite the strong technicals in the market, from the perspective of the derivatives market, investor sentiment remains neutral in the short term. The funding rate for Bitcoin is currently at 0%, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with no clear bias toward either side.
The funding rate is a mechanism used to adjust the price difference between perpetual contracts and spot prices. When the funding rate is positive, it means that bulls pay funding fees to bears; if negative, it represents strong bearish sentiment; if at 0%, it implies neutral market sentiment, with investors in a "wait and see" state, waiting for the next catalyst to provide clearer direction.
The current combination of "a large amount of chips in profit and a wait-and-see stance" often signals potential for violent fluctuations, meaning that any minor movement could trigger a profit-taking wave, and investors should remain vigilant.
Bitcoin still has room for upward movement.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin is $94,575, still some distance from the key resistance level of $95,971. From a technical perspective, there are still conditions for continued upward movement.
According to the technical indicator RSI (Relative Strength Index), Bitcoin is currently at 66.28, slightly below the common "overheated threshold" of 70. A higher RSI value indicates stronger buying pressure, but if it exceeds 70, caution should be taken regarding pullback risks; conversely, below 30 may indicate a buying opportunity.
According to the current index, Bitcoin still has room for further upward movement. If buying pressure increases, there is a chance for a short-term challenge to $98,983; however, if the bears regain strength, a pullback to $91,851 cannot be ruled out.
