At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the US Q1 GDP will be released, with market expectations dropping from 0.4% to 0.3%. The height of this number will directly affect market sentiment, with several possible scenarios:

1. Super bullish (≥2.4%)

- Result: GDP ≥ 2.4% (same as last year's fourth quarter)

- Impact: No recession risk at all, the market is in euphoria.

- Probability: Basically impossible; current expectations are even below zero.

2. Clearly bullish (1%~2.4%)

- Result: GDP is above 1%

- Impact: Slow economic growth, high hopes for a soft landing, low inflation pressure, the stock market will breathe a sigh of relief.

3. Slightly bullish (≥ expectations but <1%)

- Result: Better than the expected 0.3%, but not reaching 1%

- Impact: The economy is not collapsing but is also not strong; investors are half-hearted and may rely on policies (like tariffs and rate cuts) for motivation.

4. Neutral to bearish (positive but < expectations)

- Result: GDP is positive (e.g., 0.1%), but worse than the expected 0.3%

- Impact: The market is a bit disappointed, but not panicking. If the Federal Reserve hints at interest rate cuts, it might recover.

5. Bearish (-1%~0%)

- Result: Negative GDP growth (e.g., -0.5%)

- Impact: Recession trades are starting, the stock market may fall, funds are moving to safety. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June has soared.

6. Nuclear explosion negative (≤-1%)

- Result: GDP is worse (e.g., -2%)

- Impact: Panic mode, unless the authorities urgently intervene (e.g., by easing or cutting rates), it may collapse.

Reminder:

The market reaction may not follow usual logic. Bad data ≠ certain fall; if the market has digested it in advance, it might even rise after the bad news.

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The information and data involved in the content are derived from publicly available information, striving for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantee of the accuracy and completeness of the information. The content does not constitute any investment advice; invest at your own risk!