The Federal Reserve Chairman may change! The background of the new candidate Waller is a mystery; where will future monetary policy head? The crypto market is facing a critical turning point!
Sun Yuchen's suspected exit sparks heated discussion, whale Spoofy’s on-chain anomalies exposed, and market sentiment changes abruptly!
Focusing on next week's Federal Reserve meeting: The suspense of the rate cut will soon be revealed, following in-depth analysis by Mengke!
Recently, the market has changed dramatically: Sun Yuchen suddenly sent a signal to clear positions, and dark currents are surging in the crypto market; personnel changes in the Federal Reserve combined with policy expectations create multiple intertwined variables for the cryptocurrency market.
On-chain data shows that Sun Yuchen's associated address transferred $200 million worth of Bitcoin to Binance. Analyzing its historical operational trajectory, the current possibility of chasing high positions in the market is relatively low—previously, when Bitcoin was in the low range of $20,000-$30,000, this address had been continuously accumulating at low prices. From the behavioral logic inferred, this large transfer is more inclined towards profit taking or position adjustment. We need to be wary of the transmission effect of whale anomalies on market sentiment, but on-chain data only reflects asset transfer paths; specific trading intentions still need to be verified in conjunction with subsequent on-chain position changes.
On-chain tracking shows that Sun Yuchen's associated address has not changed its Ethereum holdings, possibly intending to bet on the final decision of the Ethereum ETF on May 27 and the window for the Cancun upgrade to materialize, temporarily retaining chips to capitalize on the positive release. The on-chain operations of the legendary whale Spoofy appear to be more tactical: out of its $6 billion holdings, only $600 million (about 10%) was reduced this time, consistent with its 'staggered profit-taking' characteristic—this address has historically tended to adjust 5-15% of its position after breaking key resistance levels, both locking in some profits and retaining trend-following positions. The current market needs to be wary of 'smart money' showing signs of partial retreat, but there has been no panic-selling characteristics. This information is very crucial. Don't forget to pay attention to Mengke.
That being said, this whale Mengke is relatively well-informed. He prefers to sell at a high rather than aiming to sell at the peak.
He was also like this when he started to escape the top last November, selling at $90,000 for Bitcoin, and then he kept selling until $105,000, so his selling does not mean the market has topped, but it is indeed very close to the top. After that, altcoins may soar again, and this wave of market may end.
From the candlestick perspective, Bitcoin indeed rebounded to the 0.618 golden ratio resistance, so it is understandable that they started selling at a high here.
However, for Ethereum and the like, it is far from even 0.382, let alone 0.618. I think it still has some catch-up space before the upgrade. So I have taken profits on Bitcoin, but I am still holding the hundreds of Ethereum I bought at the bottom, hoping to take profits when it approaches two thousand or on the day of the upgrade.
However, one thing that concerns me greatly is that the next Federal Reserve Chairman is about to take office. When Trump first came to power, we focused only on his friendly attitude towards the crypto market and overlooked the extent of his tariffs, which cost us a lot.
Now the new Federal Reserve Chairman will take office next year, and his policies will determine the trend of the entire crypto market and even the capital markets. We must understand his stance in advance to prepare for the upcoming trends.
The next Federal Reserve Chairman is basically confirmed to be Kevin Waller, and his speech at the IMF meeting reminded me of another Trump.
He said the Federal Reserve should not communicate with the market but should return to tradition, back to the silent state of over a hundred years ago. My goodness, this is very consistent with Trump's views; it seems he is also a nostalgic figure, particularly fond of the era half a century ago.
If he becomes the Federal Reserve Chairman, I think the market will really add a lot of uncertainty. The reason why the US stock market can steadily rise is due to Powell's transparent communication, which gives the market clear expectations and eliminates uncertainty.
The result is that during Powell's eight-year tenure, the US capital markets experienced unprecedented prosperity. Even during situations like the pandemic, he responded quickly and miraculously did not create a financial crisis; this is simply a miracle.
Federal Reserve candidate Waller's policy stance sparks controversy! Observing his past statements, he is a typical hawkish conservative official, advocating for reduced management of market expectations—this 'black box decision-making' style causes market concerns that he may replicate the policy ambush model from the Trump era. If he truly pushes for aggressive rate cuts according to Trump's camp's demands, it may stimulate the crypto market in the short term, but investors who understand macro cycles are well aware: politically influenced monetary policy may disrupt the pace of inflation control and even trigger a 'rate cut backlash' effect.
[Short-term Strategy Tracking]
1. OZK positive window prompt: The double nodes of April 30 and May 7 are approaching. This project has accumulated a 30% increase since our initial recommendation; at this stage, it is advisable to adopt a 'positive release gradual profit-taking' tactic.
2. Bitcoin oscillation range arbitrage: Currently execute multiple arbitrage strategies around the strong resistance level of $95,000, using spot holdings to hedge exposure (if it breaks the strong resistance, a 3% forced stop loss will be triggered, and the spot position will continue to be held until the Prague upgrade narrative ferments). This model has been validated through historical volatility for its risk-reward advantage.
Note: All strategies come with a real-time dynamic profit-taking and stop-loss framework. In volatile market conditions, it is recommended to use alongside position monitoring tools.
Preview of the Federal Reserve's May interest rate meeting: On May 8, at 2 a.m. Beijing time, the market has reached a consensus in advance—rate cut probability is zero! But the real highlight is Powell's statement: if he releases dovish signals indicating 'the path for a June rate cut is clear' (the current CME interest rate futures show only an 18% probability of a June rate cut), even if there is no action in May, the crypto market may still preemptively initiate a 'running market'.
Bitcoin price trend simulation:
1. Dovish Scenario: If Powell hints that the rate cut cycle is approaching, BTC may take the opportunity to challenge the strong resistance zone of $68,000-$70,000, and altcoins will start a wave of catch-up rally;
2. Hawkish Scenario: If reiterating 'sticky inflation' suppresses rate cut expectations, BTC may retest the psychological level of $60,000, but attention is needed on the reduced selling pressure from miners after the halving + the stabilizing effect of net inflows into stablecoins;
3. Oscillation Scenario (Highest Probability): Continuous washing in the range of $62,000-$67,000, gathering strength for the June European Central Bank/Fed interest rate decision.
Operational Tips: Currently, it is advisable to adopt a 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' strategy—position in volatility-sensitive assets (such as Meme coins, leveraged tokens) before the meeting, and lock in profits within 1 hour after the announcement. Historical data shows that the 4-hour window after the policy statement often produces the most intense price fluctuations.
[June Rate Cut Probability Analysis]
According to the latest data from CME FedWatch (as of April 30), the market's speculation on the June interest rate decision has reached a fever pitch:
✅ Maintain interest rates unchanged: 38.4% → If inflation/employment data continues to exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve may be forced into a 'hawkish standby';
✅ Rate cut of 25 basis points: 56.4% (Base Scenario) → Requires May CPI YoY growth to fall below 3.3% + Non-farm employment to drop below 200,000;
✅ Rate cut of 50 basis points: 5.2% → Only triggered if economic data shows signs of a 'hard landing'.
Transmission logic for the crypto market:
1. Rate cut landing (56.4%): BTC may quickly break through the historical high, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate may rebound, leading the AI+Depin sector;
2. Continue to hold steady (38.4%): The fear index VIX spikes, the crypto market may retrace May's gains, but the market capitalization of stablecoins (currently $161.3 billion) will provide bottom support;
3. Black Swan Rate Cut (5.2%): Volatility resonance of major asset classes, Bitcoin as 'digital gold' narrative strengthens, may see a single-day pulse of over 15%.
Operational wind indicator: It is recommended to split the June interest rate bets into 'expectation layer' and 'fact layer'—layout volatility derivatives (such as BITO options) in the 48 hours before the May CPI (May 15) and non-farm (June 7) release, and switch to spot holdings within 4 hours after the interest rate decision to capture the policy lag transmission effect.
This Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the most critical inflation indicator, the PCE data, which is very likely to drop significantly, bringing inflation back to normal levels. Therefore, I believe the probability of Powell being dovish in May to pave the way for a rate cut in June is quite high.
Then Wall Street's interest rate market is also betting more on this situation. So, although there may be no rate cut in May, the possibility of Powell being dovish is quite high, which will still be a good positive factor. Given that we mentioned earlier about Sun Yuchen and Spoofy starting to reduce positions, I think May 7th will be a good opportunity to exit at a high point. What do you think?
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