To be honest, this week's volatility expectation is bullish, but it really feels calm to the point of unease. Is a crash coming soon? Let's take a look at the data. From the IV arrangement, the downward trend is quite obvious, proving the market's dullness.

Looking at the IV box, the historical fourth quartile has all fallen below, indicating that the historical low of IV is confirmed. At this point, we can only hope for an IV rebound, and the only reason for a rebound can only be a crash.

Because there is no fundamental support for a surge. Trump has brought up tariffs again, which is a negative; the U.S. is about to issue Bitcoin options ETF funds, which is negative; there's a high probability that interest rates won't be cut in May, which is negative; employment economic data is weakening, which is negative. So, we can only expect a crash. What we're afraid of is a dull knife cutting flesh, a slow decline. If volatility is stable and prices keep going down, that would truly be the end times.

Haha, of course, what is generally said is usually not accurate; we still need to have faith. The most precious thing in the crypto world is not logic, but faith! Being bearish without shorting, using options as a safety net. It's the right time to open a call ratio. Small gains when it falls, big gains when it rises, losing money only during a surge. Perfect~ $btc