Date: April 29, 2025
Introduction
Standard Chartered, a leading multinational bank, has reiterated its bullish outlook on Bitcoin (BTC), predicting the leading cryptocurrency could surge to a new all-time high of approximately $120,000 during the second quarter of 2025.1 Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's Head of Digital Assets Research, outlined the forecast in recent research notes, emphasizing a confluence of macroeconomic trends, institutional investment shifts, and key market participant behaviour driving this potential rally. This Q2 target is part of a broader prediction that sees Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025.
The Macroeconomic Catalyst: A Shift from Traditional Assets?
A significant pillar of Standard Chartered's bullish thesis rests on deepening macroeconomic shifts. Kendrick highlights the US Treasury term premium, which measures the extra yield investors demand for holding longer-term government debt compared to short-term bonds. This premium is currently reported to be at a 12-year high. Standard Chartered notes a historical correlation between this metric and Bitcoin's price, suggesting that stress or declining confidence in traditional government debt markets could push investors towards alternative assets like Bitcoin.
Furthermore, the analysis points to a potential strategic reallocation away from US assets, possibly driven by fiscal concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, and trade policy impacts. Time-of-day trading patterns observed by the bank suggest even US-based investors may be diversifying, seeking non-US or non-traditional holdings, further boosting Bitcoin's appeal.
Institutional Momentum: ETF Flows and Whale Accumulation
The forecast is strongly supported by trends in institutional adoption:
Bitcoin ETF Inflows: Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have witnessed substantial inflows, with recent weeks reportedly seeing near-record capital injections. Kendrick interprets this not just as new investment but potentially as a "safe-haven reallocation," with funds moving out of Gold ETFs and into Bitcoin ETFs. This suggests a growing perception among some institutional players of Bitcoin as a viable alternative or even superior hedge against financial system risks compared to traditional gold.
Whale Activity: On-chain data indicates that large Bitcoin holders, often termed "whales" (typically holding 1,000 BTC or more), have been steadily accumulating Bitcoin, even during price dips.2 This consistent buying pressure from major players signals strong long-term conviction in the asset's value. The continued purchases by firms like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) are cited as examples of this trend.
Anticipated Disclosures: Upcoming mandatory 13F filings in the US (expected mid-May 2025) could reveal the extent to which institutional entities like pension funds or sovereign wealth funds have gained exposure to Bitcoin via ETFs, potentially adding further validation and momentum.
Technical Context and Market Structure
While Kendrick's core argument leans heavily on macro factors and fund flows, he does acknowledge historical price patterns. Bitcoin's price action often involves periods of sharp upward bursts followed by extended sideways consolidation. Standard Chartered suggests the current market (with BTC trading around $94,000 - $95,000 as of late April 2025) might be building towards one of these "topside moves."
Other market analysts note that Bitcoin is currently consolidating after significant gains over the past year. Breaking key resistance levels (potentially around $95,000 or the psychological $100,000 mark) is seen as crucial for confirming the next leg up.
Looking Ahead: The Path to $120K and Beyond
Standard Chartered advises that "now" could be an opportune time to position for this potential upside, reiterating the $120,000 target for Q2 2025 (ending June 30, 2025) and the $200,000 forecast for year-end 2025. Potential catalysts like the passage of stablecoin legislation in the US later in the year are also seen as supportive structural factors.
However, investors should remain cautious. Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset. Some analysts offer counterpoints, suggesting potential headwinds if broader market selloffs occur or if Bitcoin's correlation to risk assets like the Nasdaq strengthens during downturns.
Conclusion
Standard Chartered presents a compelling case for Bitcoin reaching $120,000 in the current quarter, backed by a combination of unusual macroeconomic conditions favouring alternative assets, strong institutional inflows via ETFs, and accumulation by major holders.3 While technical indicators show a market in consolidation, the underlying drivers identified by the bank suggest significant potential for an upward break. As always, the cryptocurrency market carries inherent risks, but Standard Chartered's analysis points towards a potentially transformative period for Bitcoin 2025.