$BTC market rebound and reversal, currently still on the left side of the trend under the big trend, and what season is it for altcoins?

Reversal market needs to meet two necessary conditions:

1. The supply of long-held BTC must account for more than 75% of the total circulating supply. Currently, long-held supply is still on the rise, as shown in box A in the picture, and has not reached this value.

2. On the macro level, there needs to be a pause in interest rate hikes, a period of loose QE, plus BTC's self-narrative hype, with no other negative events.

Finally, this chart has been created, showing the long-held positions of $BTC and BTC prices since 2020, along with macro and narrative analysis, as shown in the picture.

Conclusion:

The current conditions for a reversal market have not been met, and since Trump took office, the impact of tariffs has slowly dissipated, but the influence is still present. We continue to return to focus on the economic and employment aspects within the interest rate cut cycle.

There were sharp declines in the mid-stage of a bull market, but they had little effect on sentiment, and the market remained in FOMO. There can also be rebounds in bear and monkey markets, but these rebounds are the inevitable result of emotional speculation.