The recent trend is actually not much different from our previous expectations, overall still slowly pushing up within small bullish candles. Why is it moving so slowly? It's simple; the main force is deliberately using time to wear down the patience and emotions of retail investors. Recently, after a rapid rebound from low levels, many people’s minds are still stuck in a consolidation phase, hesitant to enter the market at this stage. However, when the market rises slowly within this range for a week, the bullish sentiment in the market starts to slowly infect those who were hesitant. Once it breaks a new high later on, those who have been watching may easily chase in at high levels. However, to be honest, I am not too optimistic that Bitcoin can directly break $100,000 or higher in the short term.

Some people compare the current situation with the market when Trump was elected, but they are essentially different. At that time, there was a huge favorable stimulus, along with a massive volume increase. And now? Trading volume has not significantly increased, and there are no particularly favorable news; it’s basically relying solely on funds to push up. Although the trading volume has slightly expanded recently, overall it is still weak and mixed with bearish fluctuations. This is completely different from the previous situation of a rapid increase and accelerated upward movement.

If the main force still wants to replicate the previous rhythm, everyone can see through it at a glance; they certainly won't let retail investors make money so easily. To continue rising sharply, there must be new heavyweight news to stimulate the market, but currently, I don't see any.

Looking at the 4-hour candlestick chart, Bitcoin's trend is still acceptable, but Ethereum's performance is quite average, often showing long upper and lower shadows, indicating poor control by the main force. This situation is mostly due to the heavy holdings of retail investors, leaving the main force with very few tokens. The main force wants to control the market but is unable to do so, resulting in particularly awkward price movements. Even if they want to push up, Ethereum is also difficult to take off quickly.

Overall, the current slowly rising pattern is actually a bearish signal. Because while prices are rising, trading volume is shrinking, and the speed of the rise is slowing down, the divergence between volume and price is becoming more and more obvious. Even without looking at indicators, MACD has likely already started to diverge. This indicates that buying pressure is starting to dry up, and outside contract positions are gradually decreasing. In other words, the bears have almost exhausted their strength; pushing further up could easily be a trap to lure in buyers.

If I were the main force, what would I do?

The current market situation is as follows:

• Many retail investors don’t have Bitcoin at all;

• Old investors are holding a bunch of Ethereum;

• New and old investors are still holding a bunch of altcoins unwilling to cut losses.

Moreover, some people who cut losses at low levels are still watching from the sidelines, and the short positions haven't been fully cleared. The main force will certainly use this situation to maximize profits. So I speculate that the main force will continue to push higher, but the pace won't be too fast. Bitcoin is likely to reach between $97,000 to $102,000. After getting close to $100,000, the main force may take a slight pause, but it won’t last long, and then there will be a wave of altcoin market. Ethereum may rise to around $2,000, with altcoins generally increasing by 20%-30%.

Someone might ask: After raising the price, who will the altcoins be sold to?

Actually, there's no need to worry, because most retail investors have suffered too much loss, with many losing 60%-70%. A rise of 20%-30% is simply not enough for them to break even, so many people won’t sell. At this time, when outside investors see Bitcoin breaking $100,000 and altcoins rising 10%, 20% every day, naturally more people will rush in.

Once outside funds flood in, the market sentiment will peak, and the main force will suddenly launch a wave of downward selling. At that time, many people may fall into deep traps again, and their emotions will completely collapse. However, from the current perspective, this round of adjustment should not directly break the previous major bottom because the rising cycle is too short, and the main force hasn't accumulated enough at low levels, lacking the foundation for sustained upward movement.

In the short term, tonight's U.S. stock market opening may bring some volatility, but the overall trend should first aim to sweep away the short stop-loss near $95,700. One thing to note: if Bitcoin breaks a new high but does not show significant volume, or if there are long upper shadows or bearish candles, then caution is warranted. You can consider reducing positions in batches to lock in profits. At such high levels, even if you sell early, the risk-reward ratio is still favorable.

Regarding Ethereum!

In the short term, there may still be a slight increase, but the upper limit won't be too high; $1,900 to $1,950 is a relatively reasonable target, while the chance of reaching above $2,500 is very small because the cost of pushing up is too high, and selling pressure will noticeably increase.

As for altcoins, although there may be a decent short-term increase, I still advise everyone to reduce their positions on highs and not to get carried away in this wave of bullish enticement.

Altcoins are basically in a rotation state; after the rotation, they will probably return to meme coins!

A few days ago, the meme caused a fake rally, and the popularity is still strong. Once the AI concept coins peak, meme coins will start a new upward wave again. Select a few meme coins that you are optimistic about and set up positions; once set up well, there will be another wave of double profits!

Selected meme coins: PEPE PNUT CHEEMS