On April 24, 2025, Bitcoin's price briefly broke through $95,000 but failed to hold, attempted to break through again on April 28 but quickly fell back, and finally broke through the $95,000 mark on the morning of April 29, closing at $94,861 at the time of publication, with a 24-hour increase of 1.44%. Below is an analysis of Bitcoin's consolidation near $95,000 and the potential for upward breakthrough in the future:
Reasons for consolidation
• Technical aspects: From a technical analysis perspective, $95,000 is a key psychological resistance level, where Bitcoin may face significant selling pressure, requiring some consolidation to digest previous profits and trapped positions, thus building strength for subsequent upward movement. Additionally, after a rapid rise, the market needs to consolidate to repair technical indicators, waiting for bullish signals such as short-term moving averages crossing above long-term moving averages to further confirm the effectiveness of the upward trend.
• Market sentiment and investor psychology: The sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin's price create a complex emotional landscape for investors. Near $95,000, some investors may choose to take profits, leading to increased selling pressure, while others may be waiting for a better buying opportunity. The hesitance and cautious sentiment in the market cause Bitcoin to enter a consolidation phase near this price level.
• Macroeconomic conditions and policy uncertainty: There is still some uncertainty in the global macroeconomic situation, such as the direction of U.S. monetary policy, geopolitical situations, etc. These factors may affect the price of Bitcoin. Investors tend to pay more attention to macroeconomic data and policy dynamics near the key price level of $95,000, leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market and resulting in Bitcoin's price consolidation.
Possibility and factors of upward breakthrough
• Institutional fund drive: The Arizona House of Representatives in the U.S. passed two Bitcoin reserve bills allowing state treasuries and retirement systems to invest up to 10% of available funds in Bitcoin and other digital assets, bringing new expectations for institutional fund inflows into Bitcoin. Additionally, institutions like Matrixport and Standard Chartered Bank have expressed optimism about Bitcoin's future price, with some even predicting it will reach $100,000 or even $200,000 in 2025. If these institutions increase their investment in Bitcoin, it will provide strong support for its price.
• Improved market liquidity: According to cryptocurrency financial service provider Matrixport, the liquidity situation in the crypto market has recently improved, with new funds starting to flow into the market. As market liquidity increases, Bitcoin's trading activity and market demand will also rise correspondingly, providing a favorable market environment for its upward breakthrough.
• Speculative demand warming up: IntoTheBlock's report indicates that the positions of short-term Bitcoin traders significantly increased last week, suggesting that speculative funds are re-entering the market. The increase in speculative demand usually brings more buying power, pushing the price of Bitcoin higher.
• Technical analysis and market expectations: From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken through the key resistance level of $95,000, which opens up space for further upward movement. Some technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving averages, also show that the market is in a strong state, further enhancing market expectations for Bitcoin's price increase.
Risks and uncertainties
• Market volatility risk: The cryptocurrency market itself is highly volatile, and Bitcoin's price may experience significant fluctuations in the short term. Even if Bitcoin is expected to break upward, there may be repeated shocks and pullbacks during the breakthrough process, requiring investors to endure substantial price volatility risks.
• Policy risk: Although Arizona has passed the Bitcoin reserve bill, there are still differences and uncertainties in countries' regulatory policies regarding Bitcoin. If any country introduces stricter regulatory policies in the future, it may negatively impact Bitcoin's market performance.
• Competition and alternative risks: The cryptocurrency market is highly competitive. Although Bitcoin is currently the largest and most well-known cryptocurrency by market capitalization, it also faces competitive pressure from other cryptocurrencies. Moreover, with technological advancements, new digital assets or technologies may emerge to replace some functions of Bitcoin, impacting its price.
