According to the current market situation, Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating at a high level above 100,000. The following is the relevant analysis:
Technical analysis
• Daily level: Currently, Bitcoin's daily level has been continuously closing positive. The candlestick has returned above the golden ratio 0.786 support point, which is at 102,400. The EMA trend indicator is expanding upwards, and the EMA15 trend fast line support is still stretching upwards, expected to provide support for the candlestick around 101,000. However, the top divergence trend of MACD has not ended, and volume is decreasing, with DIF and DEA contracting.
• 4-hour level: The current form of the 4-hour candlestick is more pronounced; the candlestick has been running at the top of the EMA trend indicator, and the bullish momentum is starting to contract, with clear signs of top pressure moving down. MACD has been continuously decreasing in volume, with DIF and DEA approaching the 0 axis, and the top divergence pattern has extended to the mid-line trend. The upper band of the Bollinger Bands is focused on 105,200, and the lower band is focused on 101,800.
Market opinions
• Reasons for high-level consolidation: Bitcoin is consolidating at a high level above 100,000. On one hand, the previous rise has accumulated a considerable amount of profit, and the market needs time to digest; on the other hand, the overall market sentiment is relatively cautious, with both bulls and bears battling at high levels, leading to a slowdown in price fluctuations.
• Subsequent trends: From the technical indicators, during the high consolidation period of Bitcoin, bullish momentum still exists, but the upward pressure should not be underestimated. If it can effectively break through the resistance level of 106,300, it is expected to rise further; conversely, if it falls below the support level of 102,400, it may trigger a correction.
Operational suggestions
• Short-term operations: Short-term investors can conduct high sell and low buy operations within the box range. The northern trial position is from 103,000 to 102,500, with a defense at 102,000, a stop loss of 500 points, and a target looking at 104,000 to 104,500, breaking out at 105,000; the southern trial position is from 105,000 to 105,500, with a defense at 105,800, a stop loss of 500 points, and a target looking at 103,000 to 102,500, breaking out at 102,000.
• Medium-term operations: Medium-term investors can pay attention to the support situation near 102,400. If it effectively breaks down, consider reducing positions or stopping losses; if the support is valid and the price stabilizes and rebounds, one can continue to hold or appropriately increase positions.
Risk warning
• Market uncertainty: Bitcoin price volatility is significant, and market uncertainty is high. Investors need to operate cautiously, control positions, and manage risks effectively.
• Regulatory policy risk: The cryptocurrency market is significantly affected by regulatory policies in various countries. Investors need to pay attention to related policy changes to avoid investment losses due to policy risks.
Investment carries risks, and one must be cautious when entering the market. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.