"Important economic data is about to be released, and the market is clearly concerned about the actual performance of the economic data. Many may likely seek safe havens before the economic data is published next Wednesday..." However, what I see from on-chain data is not a 'possibility,' but a real 'fact' that has occurred.
Figure 1 shows the realized profits differentiated by wallet size; it can be seen that on April 25, when BTC rebounded to over $94,000, there was a huge amount of profit-taking, primarily driven by a super whale group holding more than 10,000 BTC, which collectively cashed out nearly $1.7 billion in profits.
From the data, during the top range when BTC surged above $100,000 from November 2024 to January 2025, there was a phenomenon of large wallets heavily cashing out at the peak; however, this has not occurred since February 8, 2025. Even on March 2, when BTC similarly rebounded to over $94,000, no similar situation occurred, making the reasons behind this profit-taking by the large whales worthy of our attention.
Figure 2 shows the realized profits differentiated by holding time; through this data, we can more accurately pinpoint the approximate period in which these whales held their BTC. As shown in Figure 2, they primarily held BTC for 6-12 months, followed by long-term holders of 1-2 years.
This indicates that the large whales who just bought in the range of $75,000-$81,000 in the short term are not performing profit-taking for arbitrage gains. Based on a holding period of 6-12 months, their approximate cost should be around $60,000-$70,000. However, they did not choose to sell when BTC rebounded to $94,000 on March 2, but decisively decided to leave the market this time.
I think they may have seen risks or uncertainties that we have not yet perceived, but such large-scale profit-taking without a significant price drop indicates that there is capital absorbing these excess distributions. This is what we have been mentioning recently: 'whales are accelerating their accumulation.'
This is a divergence, a serious divergence!
It is once again the decisive moment. This data does not greatly affect those who are long-term bullish on the BTC trend, but short-term leveraged positions should be cautious; battles among titans are unpredictable, and what we see on the calm surface may be filled with perilous undercurrents!
