I believe the market has absolutely bottomed around $74,500. At that time, Trump took an extreme stance on tariffs, but under the pressure of the financial market crash, he had to choose to compromise — after all, he was also facing the pressure of the 2026 midterm elections.
So the market has hit bottom, funds have returned, and Bitcoin has rebounded by about 25%. Do you remember the market low after the FTX crash in 2022? At that time, Yellen chose to reduce the reverse repurchase from $250 million to 0, and Bitcoin subsequently rose nearly 6 times. I believe we will see a similar upward pattern.
How long can market liquidity and positive sentiment last? What other impacts do interest rate cut expectations have?
Overemphasizing interest rate cuts is somewhat misplaced. People always want to apply the experiences of 2008-2019 — once quantitative easing policies are implemented, the Federal Reserve prints money weekly, and we can buy assets to ensure profits without loss; this has become a conditioned reflex in financial markets, but the rules of the game have changed. When the market realizes that quantitative easing means inflation, and inflation will impact election outcomes, the policy toolbox must be updated. Yellen's actions at the end of 2022 are a typical case — although not nominal QE, it created liquidity in some form, pushing the stock market, cryptocurrencies, and gold to surge in the following 18-24 months until Trump took office.
Now people are still waiting for Powell to cut interest rates or restart QE, which is completely like looking for a sword on a boat.
Currently, the U.S. Treasury is implementing a bond buyback program, which is not as straightforward as QE, but essentially provides leverage for Treasury bond buyers. As government deficits balloon, trillions of new debt will flood the market, which means liquidity is still being injected, just under a different guise. If one waits for traditional QE signals to enter the market, it may have already risen.
The data that truly needs attention is volatility, especially the volatility index of the bond market (MOVE). When this index breaks 140, policymakers will certainly intervene: for example, after touching 172 intraday on April 8, JP Morgan CEO Dimon immediately criticized Trump's tariff policy on television, leading Trump to change his stance; after the MOVE broke 140 in September 2022, Yellen quickly adjusted the bond issuance structure, and the market rebounded in response. History repeatedly proves that as the leverage of the financial system rises, the intervention threshold for policymakers is decreasing.
Trump, as a "volatility machine," is precisely a boon for Bitcoin. He often employs a strategy of "extreme pressure - testing reactions - rapid turnarounds," and this unpredictability is exactly the nourishment that the crypto market loves. We do not need to predict the direction of policies; as long as volatility rises, we can make money — because a highly leveraged financial system simply cannot withstand severe fluctuations.
Which tokens can outperform Bitcoin?
The key to this question depends on the entry price.
Any asset could potentially surpass Bitcoin, but it depends on two variables: the buying price range and the income growth curve during the holding period. There are many cash flow tokens that are not fully priced, and when the "altcoin season" or "fundamentals season" arrives (i.e., when Bitcoin's dominance peaks), there is indeed explosive potential.
How to conduct the selection?
First, I want to find those protocols or businesses that users are genuinely paying for with real money — not relying on token incentives, but users paying with stablecoins or other cryptocurrencies to purchase services. A typical example is exchanges, such as Hyperliquid, which has grown from zero to capture 10-20% of the perpetual contract market within 18 months. They have built an extremely efficient order book system, and the transaction fees paid by users are directly used for token buybacks; this simple and direct business model makes sense.
The second key point is how token holders can benefit. Many projects that are making a lot of money (such as some top DEXs) do not allow token holders to share in the profits. Take Uniswap as an example — no matter how much the protocol earns, holding UNI is of no use, so if there are UNI dividends in the future, or if other new distribution mechanisms emerge, there is significant growth potential. The same applies to JUP, MKR, and AAVE.
