Currently, I can't say for sure about Bitcoin's movement, but personally, I lean towards a further pullback. For altcoins, there is clearly a second buying opportunity. Tonight is crucial; we need to see if Bitcoin will attract more buyers—if it doesn't, it won't be able to fall much further, as many altcoins have already released significant volumes, and there is clear bottom support. If there is support, small positions can be arranged. Betting on Bitcoin short positions is not as good as betting on altcoin rebounds, as the profits are greater. Just take a look; most altcoins are in the bottom area. Altcoins may pull back in the short term, but as long as Bitcoin stops falling, altcoins will have the chance to surge.
Additionally, there are quite a few Bitcoin shorts now, and with the potential future safe-haven attributes possibly aligning with gold, those holding short positions should pay attention: if Bitcoin attracts buyers tonight and then drops, it may be time to exit the shorts; if it doesn't drop tonight, then one should consider a pullback to go long on altcoins. Personally, I lean towards a quick pull to attract buyers tonight, followed by a drop, settling into a range until the U.S. stock market closes before starting a real decline. Altcoins are still in the accumulation phase, and the main upward wave is still early, but opportunities are slowly emerging; as long as they dare to drop, they should buy boldly. Bitcoin at 100k is a psychological barrier! The explosion of altcoins will also come with 100k! Bitcoin at 100k is a psychological threshold; at least that’s the answer I've gathered from VCs around me, who believe that the attributes after 100k are more akin to gold. I believe the explosion of altcoins will also occur after 100k, as breaking through psychological barriers will surely bring in FOMO funds. Market makers will also seek deep liquidity targets for easier exit options in the future. Why did the altcoins go wild in March and November of 2024? Because Bitcoin broke through its historical high and surpassed a two-year psychological barrier, allowing for a flourishing market. In contrast, this year, both liquidity and altcoin capital outflows are not much different from a deep bear market, so the market not only needs to release liquidity but also break through literal barriers to instill confidence in the market—confidence is more precious than gold.
With the bull market opening, I expect this wave of market activity to last for 4 months, with altcoins being the main focus!
In the second half of the bull market, the institutions on Wall Street will likely turn to operate ETH as the main line of the market, driving a significant rise in altcoins (after all, it has enough room to grow), eventually cutting down the retail investors who recently converted various altcoins at the bottom to BTC for safety. I think the possibility of this is very high. More importantly, the policy landscape is also quietly changing: in the past, global governments had a conservative attitude towards blockchain, such as China's ban, the EU's MiCA framework, and the strong regulations from the former SEC chairman in the U.S.; however, the ascension of the new SEC chairman may signal a significant shift in regulatory direction.
In the future, more tokens may be listed through U.S. stock ETFs, coupled with global fiat currency inflation and liquidity release, which is expected to drive the market to new heights. Of course, the large-scale listing of ETFs is also a double-edged sword: capital-driven bubbles may burst like the internet bubble of 2000, but they may also give birth to a new order after the bubble.
The AI sector is undoubtedly one of the main lines of speculation in this round of the bull market!
VIRTUAL was only 0.54 when I first recommended it; Old Yao also recommended it in his article! It is now 1.24, having doubled in just half a month, with a return of 120%. As we can see, the coins in the AI sector are currently rebounding the strongest. Choose a few that you are most optimistic about and focus on increasing your holdings, preferably prioritizing leading projects. For example, virtual has reached a new high again. Other options include $AIXBT or AI16Z, and $COOKIE. For those with a bold spirit, you might consider betting on TUT and ACT!
The current heat in the AI sector is reminiscent of the explosion of the metaverse in 2021, with sand, mana, axs, and magic being memorable. Doubling in a day, five times in a week. If external funds are to flood into web3 on a large scale, there must be a sufficiently large entry point.
And this time, undoubtedly, it is the AI sector that has supported this entry point. Of course, meme coins are also good, but in terms of storytelling ability, AI definitely has the advantage.
