Bitcoin has been consolidating around 95,000 for the fifth trading day today, with the price consistently under pressure below the 96,000 boundary. This position coincides with the rebound high point from March 3 of this year, and it is also a consolidation relay point just 5,000 dollars away from the 100,000 dollar mark. On the daily chart, after the price consolidated around 85,000 and then surged by a full 10,000 dollars, it is now a time for profit-taking and increasing market turnover, solidifying the accumulation of positions. Of course, another point is that the upper range of 95,500-98,500 is an area where positions are trapped. Since the price retreated to this range from the high of nearly 110,000 dollars at the end of January, there has been sufficient pullback, causing buying sentiment, followed by a 20,000 dollar drop. At this time, there is a demand for selling and waiting among trapped positions. Under these combined factors, Bitcoin is currently consolidating around 95,000.
Currently, from the perspective of the daily chart pattern, the long-term MA averages have already turned upward, with MA 30 forming a slope of about 30 degrees upwards, and MA 60 just turning at a 15-degree angle, clearly guiding a bullish trend.
From the perspective of the four-hour nodes, the price is in an upward channel, with the lower boundary of the consolidation at 91,500 dollars, which also corresponds to a trend support line of MA 60. If the price dips down here and then rebounds, it would be ideal. From the details on the hourly chart, the price is still in a strong support and active protection state. There was a 4-hour drop in price yesterday morning, but it quickly recovered to the upper boundary near 95,600 due to continuous buying after stopping the drop at 9 AM. At 9 PM, there was another short drop from the upper boundary, but the price quickly stopped dropping and continued to recover upwards. This action indicates that market selling pressure is not strong, and the vast majority of positions are waiting for a rise.
From the data perspective, last week, the total inflow of funds into the cryptocurrency market reached 3.4 billion dollars, with a high bullish sentiment among investors. Yesterday, Bitcoin ETF still saw an inflow of nearly 600 million dollars. Although the price has not shown a significant rise in recent days, the inflow of funds has fully absorbed the selling pressure, resulting in strong overall price stability.
The medal suggests that after a certain period of consolidation here, prices will begin to push upward again. This signal requires a continuous series of effective bullish closes on the hourly chart to break through the 96,000 dollar boundary pressure, then a new wave of climbing will start, with subsequent daily fluctuations expected to reach around 105,000 dollars. Of course, for rapid bullish moves on the hourly chart that exceed 96,000 dollars, it is easy to create a false bullish signal, increasing long positions, followed by a strong short drop to realize a liquidation of long positions. Therefore, everyone should pay attention to the details on the hourly chart to see if it is an active buying scenario.
In summary, since the timing for ending the consolidation and starting a new round of rises is difficult to predict, it would be safer to participate in the long positions with a certain pullback in price in the short term. This way, profits during the upward movement would be more substantial, and the downward space would be smaller, making it less likely to hit the stop-loss point.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait for a long position entry in the range of 91,500-92,500, with a stop loss at 90,000 (the stop loss should be widened in a single-sided bullish environment). The short-term target is 95,500, 97,500, and the medium-term target is 99,000 dollars, with a complete wave profit holding up to 104,000 dollars.
If the price experiences a small pullback over the next day and breaks through the boundary of 96,000 dollars, it indicates that the consolidation has been completed. At that time, it is recommended to directly follow up with long positions, with a stop loss at 95,000 dollars and a target of 99,000 dollars, holding for a complete wave profit up to 104,000 dollars.
