I. Market news: Policy and technical game **
1. Arizona bill vote: This afternoon at 1 PM (local time), the Arizona House of Representatives will conduct a final vote on SB1373 and SB1025. If passed, it may encourage the state government to include Bitcoin in its strategic reserves, strengthening institutional allocation demand.
2. Bitcoin price resilience: Despite the Dallas Fed manufacturing index plummeting to -35.8 (the lowest since May 2020), Bitcoin remains stable in the $94,000-$95,000 range, with a 24-hour volatility of 3.2% and a total liquidation amount of $480 million (72% long positions).
3. Continued inflow of ETF funds: Bitcoin spot ETF net purchases reached $3 billion in a week, and BlackRock's IBIT saw a record single-day increase, signaling significant institutional bottom-fishing.
II. Short-term risks and support logic
1. Key technical positions:
- Support levels: $93,500 (Bollinger Band middle line on the 4-hour chart), $92,000 (April 25 low);
- Resistance levels: $95,800 (Fibonacci 50% retracement), $97,000 (psychological level).
- Signal warning: RSI value of 68 is close to the overbought zone. If it fails to break above $95,800, it may trigger a technical correction.
2. Policy sensitive period:
- The voting results of the Arizona bill may trigger short-term volatility. If passed, it could boost market sentiment; otherwise, it may intensify selling pressure.
- The ongoing impact of Trump's tariff policy remains, with market concerns that escalating trade wars may suppress risk appetite.
3. Miner dynamics: The total network hash rate has fluctuated sharply recently, with some miners briefly exiting due to profit pressures. If the price falls below $92,000, it may trigger a selling wave from small and medium-sized miners. III. Future 24-hour trend prediction
1. Focus of the long-short game:
- Bullish factors: Continuous ETF fund inflows, institutions buying on dips (Coinbase saw an outflow of 8,756 BTC in one day), and the dollar index falling below 99.
- Bearish factors: Technical overbought conditions and geopolitical risks (escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict).
2. Intraday strategy:
- Break above $95,800: Consider light long positions with a target of $97,000;
- Fall below $93,500: Stop-loss and wait, pay attention to the effectiveness of the $92,000 support;
- Range trading: Buy low and sell high within the $93,500-$95,800 range, leverage suggested not to exceed 10 times.
- Pay attention to the U.S. Core PCE data today at 20:30 (UTC). If inflation exceeds expectations (previous value 2.4%), it may strengthen the Fed's hawkish stance, leading to a market plunge.
