$BTC

I. Key Technical Indicators

Support and Resistance

Upper Resistance: $95,700 (24-hour high) → $96,500 (short-term target) → $98,000 (medium-term target).

Lower Support: $95,000 (previous resistance turned support) → $94,500 (recent support) → $93,500 (strong short-term support).

Key Battleground: Whether it can hold above $95,000 will determine the short-term direction; if it breaks $96,500, it may accelerate towards the psychological level of $100,000.

Technical Indicator Signals

RSI: 54.32-59.4 (neutral to strong), close to overbought territory but not overheated, need to be cautious of pullback risks.

MACD: Remains in the buy zone, but the red bars decreasing show weakening bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands: Running above the middle band and the channel is expanding, short-term trend is strong but needs to verify sustainability.

II. Market Sentiment and Capital Dynamics

Sentiment Indicators

Fear and Greed Index: Increased from 54 to 60 (greed zone), market confidence is strengthening, but need to be cautious of short-term overheating pullbacks.

Exchange Holding Amount: Reached a 7-year low (about 2.49 million coins), the proportion of long-term holders is increasing, selling pressure is easing.

Capital Flow

ETF funds continue to flow in, with institutional buying providing price support, but if inflows slow down, it may trigger volatility.

24-hour Liquidation Data: Over 110,000 people liquidated $275 million, intense long/short battles, short-term volatility risk is high.

III. Long/Short Battles and Operational Suggestions

Bullish Logic

After breaking the key resistance level of $95,000, technical indicators open up an upward channel; if it holds above $96,500, it may initiate a rally towards $100,000.

Arizona, USA passes Bitcoin reserve bill, policy signals long-term benefits.

Bearish Risks

Daily lines continuously close with long upper shadows, the upper Bollinger Band is under pressure forming a “shooting star” pattern; if it falls below $92,700, it may confirm a short-term top.

Altcoins diverge from BTC, market funds are focusing on mainstream coins, need to be cautious of profit-taking selling causing a chain reaction of pullbacks.

Strategy Reference

Long: Accumulate in batches below $94,500 on pullbacks, target $96,500-$98,000.

Short: Lightly short on rebounds above $96,500, set stop-loss above $97,000.