Analyst discusses hot topics:
Today, let's talk about a pretty impressive bill passed in Arizona, named SB373. In simple terms, it allows the state government to use no more than 10% of state finances and public funds from the retirement system to purchase Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.
However, the bill is currently with the governor, who has 5 working days to decide whether to sign or veto it. So whether SB373 will pass remains uncertain. If vetoed, the legislative body would need two-thirds of the votes to overturn it, which is not an easy task.
Next, we have the U.S. GDP data to be announced tomorrow. This will definitely cause fluctuations in the market. Recently, ETFs have been attracting money, and market sentiment has slightly warmed up. But don't be foolishly excited; Bitcoin's current price position is quite awkward, so we need to think calmly.
Why is it awkward? Because it has been oscillating in a large range for a short time. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate for another ten days or so before deciding on a direction. The analyst makes a hypothesis: the last major adjustment was horizontal, lasting several months from March to October last year. This time, it may adjust vertically, dropping sharply but for a shorter time.
How to view this specifically? The drop from 109588 to 74508 is the first wave of adjustment, followed by a rebound from 74508 to the current level. After the rebound, it may drop again, and the extent of the drop depends on the strength of the rebound, as well as whether there are signs of stabilization in the daily trend.
Since the bull market began in October last year, every time the short to medium-term moving averages have a death cross, Bitcoin tends to rise about 30%, followed by a retracement of at least 50%. This has happened five times already.
Now that it has risen from 74k, it has increased by 28%, approaching 95 to 98k. There are many trapped positions here, creating significant pressure. If it retraces by 50%, it could drop to around 85k.
Now we are in a phase of shifting from short selling to buying. Moving averages need to accumulate before expanding in the bullish direction. In other words, the market is still finding its way, so everyone should avoid being mindlessly excited. It's good that money is coming into ETFs, but that's not enough; we also need to pay attention to policies and the overall environment.
Analyst's view on the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 95500
Second resistance level: 95000
Support level reference:
First support level: 94200
Second support level: 93500
Today's suggestion:
Bitcoin continues to test the 95K resistance after forming a range following a rebound. As long as the price does not fall below the low and maintains the upward trend line, forming a range, it can be regarded as consolidating at the bottom, and the bullish view can be maintained throughout the day.
Instead of adopting a breakout trading strategy, it is better to focus on whether the 120-day moving average and the upward trend line can stabilize within the adjustment range, and then observe if trading volume increases when breaking through 95K after entering at lower prices.
In the short term, 94.2K can be considered as a support level, but under the current short-term selling pressure, it may break. Therefore, it is suggested to use the 120-day moving average as support.
If the price holds above the 120-day moving average and closes above it during the day, it would help raise the low points, thus maintaining a bullish view. The levels of 93.5K and the upward trend line can also be considered as support.
April 29th Analyst Segment:
Long entry reference: Light long in the 93000-93500 range. Target: 95000-95500
Short entry reference: Light short in the 95000-95500 range. Target: 94200-93500
