1. Trend Structure and Key Point Analysis
1. Bull-Bear Watershed and Short-term Trend Judgment
Currently, the major coin price is at a key technical position on the 4-hour level, with 94300 becoming the core watershed for bulls and bears. From a technical perspective, if the 4-hour candlestick closes and stabilizes above this position, it indicates that short-term bullish forces dominate, and the price is expected to continue the upward trend; conversely, if it breaks below this support level, it will confirm the start of a 4-hour pullback, and the market may turn towards a weak adjustment.
2. Upward Pressure Range and Target Level
- First Pressure Level (Short-term): 95780
This position is the upper edge of the recent fluctuation range, combined with the 50-period moving average resistance. A breakout may open up short-term upward space.
- Second Pressure Level (Medium-term): 96980
This is near the previous high point, corresponding to the upper Bollinger Band area at the daily level. If the price touches this level, attention should be paid to the volume situation. A breakout may further test long-term resistance.
- Third Pressure Level (Long-term): 98500
This position is a historically significant area of dense transactions and a psychological barrier for bull-bear transitions. Key attention should be given to breakout signals for medium- to long-term trend reversals.
3. Pullback Support System and Risk Control
- First Support Level (Initial Buffer): 93515
Corresponding to the 4-hour level 20-period moving average support, if the price quickly falls to this level, a technical rebound may occur, but the support strength is weak.
- Second Support Level (Short-term Strong Support): 92700
This position is the lower edge of the recent fluctuation range, combined with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. If lost, it may trigger panic selling.
- Third Support Level (Medium-term Trend Reference): 91880
This is the support of the daily-level upward trend line. If the price breaks below this position, caution should be taken regarding the risk of a medium- to long-term trend reversal.
2. Operating Strategies and Risk Alerts
1. Bullish (stabilizing above 94300)
- Entry Conditions: 4-hour closing confirms stabilization above 94300, with moderate volume increase.
- Target Levels: sequentially target 95780 (take profit 1), 96980 (take profit 2), aggressive traders may leave some positions to aim for 98500.
- Stop Loss Setting: Break below 94000 (slightly below the watershed, guard against false breakouts).
2. Bearish (breaking below 94300)
- Entry Conditions: 4-hour closing entity breaks below 94300, and the rebound fails to recover this position.
- Target Levels: sequentially look down to 93515 (short-term take profit), 92700 (medium-term take profit), strong bears can aim for 91880.
- Stop Loss Setting: Break above 94500 (re-establishing above the watershed, confirming the end of the pullback).
3. Neutral Strategy (Wait and See)
If the price fluctuates narrowly around 94300, it is recommended to wait for a clear direction before entering, to avoid blindly chasing orders at critical positions.
3. Trend Summary and Market Outlook
Today's market trend centers around 94300 as the turning point for bullish and bearish trends, presenting an overall pattern of 'if stable, then attack; if broken, then probe downwards'. From a market sentiment perspective, short-term attention should be paid to the macro factors such as Federal Reserve policy expectations and cryptocurrency regulation dynamics that impact the market, while also being wary of major funds washing out at critical points.
Operation Suggestion: Closely monitor the 4-hour candlestick patterns and volume changes, strictly enforce stop-loss discipline, control positions within 30%, and avoid excessive leveraged trading. In the medium- to long-term, everyone can accumulate positions in batches during dips. Short-term traders should focus on the day's volatility rhythm, prioritizing quick entry and exit.$BTC #加密市场反弹 #BTC走势分析 
