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Analysis → Building Positions → Trial Trading → Consolidation → Initial Rising → Washout → Rising → Distribution → Rebound → Dumping → Cycle Circulation... ……
Full Analysis of the Operator's Process:
Preparation Phase: Before starting to intervene in a specific currency, the operator collects comprehensive information about the project, including total chip quantity, unlocking conditions for precise statistics, costs for investors at various levels, chip dispersion, and community enthusiasm evaluation, etc. After collecting information, they will set a target for price manipulation based on the funds they can mobilize.
1, Position Building Phase
Before building positions, operators will conduct various investigations covering market sentiment, BTC market trends, macroeconomic factors, and policy risks. Typically, operators choose to enter positions when the market is generally pessimistic, market sentiment is low, retail investor confidence is shaken, and there is a generally pessimistic view towards the currency's prospects. As the saying goes, when retail investors are fearful, it is the time for operators to be greedy.
Depending on the operator's strength, their holding ratio also varies. Short-term operators can control 10% - 30% of the chip quantity to operate, while long-term operators often need to hold 40% or more of the chips. Of course, this also largely depends on the operator's strength. Generally, operators do not build positions at high prices.
2, Position Building Phase: The operator's methods for building positions mainly include the following:
Bearish Accumulation: Using negative news in the crypto space, such as project technical failures and rumors of stricter regulations, to suppress currency prices, triggering panic selling and thus accumulating chips at low prices.
Trap for Short Selling: Creating a false impression of downward price movement through technical means to induce retail investors to sell, while the operator accumulates at low prices to complete the position.
Large Scale Buying: Concentrated funds buy a large amount of the target currency in a short period, pushing up trading volume and attracting follow-on buying, secretly accumulating chips.
Bounce Stockpiling: During the rebound phase after a drop in currency prices, gradually buy in, taking advantage of some investors' psychology of breaking even or taking profits to expand positions.
New Project Ambush: When there are expectations for significant technical upgrades, new application scenarios, or strategic cooperation related to the target currency, preemptively build positions.
3, Trial Trading Phase
In this phase, the operator slightly raises or suppresses currency prices, observing market buying and selling behavior, trading volume, order conditions, and emotional fluctuations. This helps understand key information such as the degree of chip locking, the strength of follow-on buying, and resistance and support levels, providing a basis for fine-tuning future trading strategies.
However, trial trading is not a mandatory step. Some operators, relying on keen market intuition and rich experience, may directly initiate a price rise or take other actions, and the timing for trial trading can be flexible, allowing it to be conducted as needed throughout the entire process.
4, Organizing Phase
Consolidation is to optimize the chip structure and accumulate upward momentum, and can be subdivided into low, middle, and high-level consolidations based on the currency price position. The price movement generally alternates between rising, falling, and consolidating, with consolidation taking up a large amount of time. During this stage, the price fluctuates gently and the direction is unclear, testing investors' patience. The operator uses this time to solidify holding costs, clean up floating chips, and wait for an opportunity to raise prices. This stage often tests the patience of retail investors the most, as its movement can be quite annoying.
5, Initial Rising Phase
After completing the preliminary groundwork, the operator starts the initial rising market, moderately raising prices to attract market attention, stimulate enthusiasm from outside funds, and reduce subsequent resistance to price increases. However, to avoid prematurely revealing intentions and attracting follow-on buying and regulatory attention, the initial rise will be limited, followed by a slight price drop to clean up profit-taking and unstable chips, laying a solid foundation for subsequent stable price increases.
6, Washout Phase
After accumulating a certain amount of chips, operators may adopt a strategy of suppressing currency prices to drive away follow-on buying and force early holders to sell. This can both absorb more chips at low prices, reduce holding costs, and eliminate weak-willed retail investors, reducing selling pressure for future rises, creating conditions for high-price distribution.
7, Rising Phase
After a series of operations including preliminary accumulation, trial trading, and washout, both sides have formed a high degree of unity to a certain extent. Once the operator controls a large number of chips and stabilizes the market, the price increase becomes a natural outcome. During the rising phase, prices quickly climb, and the operator skillfully uses factors such as market enthusiasm, technical indicators, and favorable news to attract more investors to follow the buying trend, pushing prices to new highs and achieving substantial profits.
8, Distribution Phase
As the saying goes, 'Being able to buy makes you a disciple, but being able to sell makes you a master.' Distributing is the key goal of the operator's process. Successfully distributing chips is the only way to convert paper profits into actual gains. Distribution is the most critical phase in the operator's process because only by successfully distributing chips can the operator turn paper profits into real profits. To achieve this, operators will use every trick in the book, such as creating a false appearance of market prosperity, using media to guide sentiment, and employing related accounts for fake trading to create an active atmosphere, enticing unaware retail investors to take over and ensuring smooth distribution.
9, Rebound Phase
After a drop in currency prices, a brief rebound often occurs, known as the rebound phase. When the operator's selling drives prices down to near the profit line, due to some retail investors' 'bottom-fishing' psychology and their own need to sell remaining chips, there may be a slight price increase, creating a rebound market. However, this is often short-lived; after the rebound ends, prices are likely to continue to drop, possibly reaching new lows. If investors rashly attempt to 'bottom-fish', they can easily fall into a trapped situation. The rebound phase in the operator's process is considered a secondary phase, and some targets may not have a rebound process.
10, Passive Selling in the Dumping Phase:
When sudden negative news arises, such as significant technical vulnerabilities, disputes among project parties, or sudden changes in regulatory policies, it can trigger a panic selling wave in the market, forcing operators to dump to reduce losses. This behavior may lead operators to abandon their positions or, after dumping, seek opportunities to accumulate chips at low prices again.
Dumping After High Selling: After successfully selling off and locking in profits at high prices, the remaining small amount of chips does not matter. At this time, dumping can suppress currency prices and facilitate future accumulation at lower prices, without regard for market image and costs.
Dumping for a New Market: After one round of speculation has ended, operators will intentionally dump to use their remaining chips for low-cost accumulation, creating a bearish atmosphere to induce investor selling, while also testing the market's bottom and investor psychology, laying the groundwork for the next market cycle.
Regardless of the type of operator, they always go through the three stages of building positions, rising, and distribution. This is the most basic 'trilogy' of the operator's process. By thinking from the perspective of the main forces and understanding their trading intentions, one can follow the rhythm and reap the benefits! The crypto space is always repeating yesterday's story.
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