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Five fundamental truths that will help think in terms of probability:
1) Anything can happen.
2) To make money, it is not necessary to know what will happen in the next moment.
3) For each given set of variables that defines a competitive advantage, there is a characteristic random distribution of failures and successes.
4) Competitive advantage is nothing more than an expression of a higher probability of the development of events in a certain direction.
5) Every moment of market activity is unique in its own way.
(c) Mark Douglas.
